Markon is warning buyers that green leaf, iceberg, and romaine supplies will remain extremely limited through the end of the Salinas season in early to mid-November. Abnormally high temperatures have cut yields and pushed prices up sharply. Markon First Crop product is available but the company is substituting Markon Best Available as needed due to low weights.

Salinas is the heart of fall lettuce supply for North America, and a heat-compressed season there sends ripple effects across every retail and foodservice buyer on the continent. This comes after the Cyclospora outbreak earlier this season already pushed shoppers toward greenhouse alternatives — a shift that, per recent reporting, appears sticky.

Watch for continued upward price pressure on all head lettuces through at least mid-November. Buyers sourcing from secondary growing areas like Huron, New Mexico, and South Carolina may have more flexibility, but volume out of those regions won't fully offset Salinas tightness.

The USDA's first forecast for the 2026-27 Florida citrus season puts orange production at 10 million boxes — down 23% from last season's 12.95 million boxes. Non-Valencia varieties are forecast to fall a punishing 37%, while Valencia oranges are down 14%. Grapefruit production is also slightly lower, though tangerine and tangelo volumes dipped only modestly. Lemon is the lone bright spot, with a projected 6% volume increase.

Florida's citrus industry is grinding through a multi-year crisis driven by citrus greening disease, reduced bearing acreage, hurricane damage, and ongoing freeze recovery. Fewer bearing trees and higher-than-average fruit drop are compounding the pressure this season. This forecast comes fresh on the heels of a Texas grapefruit season already hammered by extreme heat.

For buyers managing orange juice and fresh citrus programs, a 23% supply cut means tighter allocations and upward price pressure through the season. Worth monitoring how California Navel volume — already transitioning — absorbs any retail demand that Florida can't cover.

Kroger announced plans to eliminate roughly 3,000 corporate positions over the next three years, representing about 37% of its corporate workforce. The cuts span multiple departments and office locations and were announced by CEO Greg Foran in a companywide memo. The move follows a separate elimination of nearly 1,000 corporate roles last year after the failed Albertsons merger.

The timing matters for produce: just last month Kroger cut its same-store sales outlook to below 1%, citing a sharp decline in produce sales tied to the summer Cyclospora outbreak. Foran has framed the restructuring as a cost-reduction effort to fund lower shelf prices and better in-store customer service — the same playbook competitors are running. The company is also navigating an Albertsons lawsuit seeking over $8 billion in damages and a planned acquisition of Giant Eagle that is drawing regulatory scrutiny.

For produce suppliers, a leaner Kroger corporate structure could mean fewer buyer contacts, more centralized purchasing decisions, and increased pressure on vendor terms. Watch for how category management teams are reorganized in the months ahead.

Albertsons posted a rough second quarter — revenues slid 0.1% to $18.89 billion, identical-store sales fell 0.8%, and adjusted net income dropped 28%. The Boise-based grocer has launched a comprehensive business review, pulled its full-year financial guidance, and said layoffs and store closures are on the table as it accelerates its turnaround effort. CEO Susan Morris called the results below the company's potential and said the cost structure is no longer affordable.

The review follows ACI Edge, an earlier restructuring that consolidated Albertsons' 11 divisions into four regions and centralized center-store merchandising. The company is simultaneously suing Kroger for more than $8 billion, alleging its rival failed to produce a viable antitrust divestiture plan — a trial that starts October 19. Grocery and digital channels showed some resilience, with digital sales up 11%, but shrink and delivery costs pressured margins.

For produce suppliers and category managers with Albertsons accounts, this level of structural uncertainty warrants close attention. A company in active turnaround mode with withdrawn guidance and potential store closures is likely to tighten supplier terms, reduce SKU counts, and reset promotional commitments.

Peru's Table Grape Growers Association Provid now forecasts 78.7 million 8.2 kg boxes for the 2026-27 season, down 9% from the prior year and a downward revision from its earlier estimate of 82.65 million boxes. The northern growing zone is expecting a 28% decline, driven by harvests starting up to three weeks early for some varieties and lower bunch weights from smaller berry sizes. The southern zone is up 6% due to expanded productive hectares.

Peru is a critical table grape origin for North American and European buyers, particularly during the December-through-February window. A 28% drop in northern production is significant because that region typically leads the season calendar. Smaller berry sizes and earlier timing are compounding the volume story with a quality and pack-out challenge.

Volume is expected to peak between weeks 44 and 47 in the north, so buyers should watch for early-season tightness and plan promotional windows accordingly. The southern zone's growth may partially offset northern losses, but the full picture won't stabilize until later harvest data is available.

Chile's Blueberry Committee estimates 95,107 tons of fresh blueberry exports for the 2026-27 season, up 2% from last year and marking a third consecutive year of growth. New replacement varieties are the engine — expected to reach 30,305 tons, a 39% surge, while traditional varieties are projected to fall 9%. By this season, one in every three fresh export boxes will contain next-generation genetics.

The context is important: Peru's blueberry season is collapsing under El Niño pressure, and Chile's committee says that gap is creating commercial openings for Chilean fresh fruit. Executive director Andrés Armstrong was clear that these opportunities should be used to strengthen Chile's quality positioning — not as a reason to ship lower-grade fruit. Chile also faces a 12.5% tariff surcharge in the U.S., which shifted shipment mix toward organic (up 12%) and pushed Europe to capture half of all Chilean fresh blueberry exports.

For U.S. buyers, Chilean blueberries will be critical fill-in supply as Peru undershoots. Worth monitoring whether the new-variety quality advantage — firmer fruit, better shelf life — translates to premium pricing or simply replaces volume that would have come from Peru.

Current banana supply is running high across most growing regions, with strong volumes expected through the end of November. The flush of fruit traces back to favorable spring growing conditions, with El Niño-related dryness this summer largely managed through irrigation. But that changes soon: increased rainfall is blocking sunlight across many farms, and an importer is projecting a steeper-than-normal drop in volume when November-December hits.

Demand patterns have also been off this season — school season didn't produce the typical sales bump, which one importer attributed to consumers pulling back due to price fatigue across the grocery basket. Meanwhile, rising fertilizer, packaging, transportation, and diesel costs are building upward pressure into 2027 contract pricing. A weakened U.S. dollar has added further strain on growers, though recent dollar stabilization offers some short-term relief.

Contract season is underway at a tricky moment — high current volume is pushing spot prices down, but the underlying cost structure points to significantly higher contract prices for next year. Banana growers going out of business and farms scaling back could tighten long-term supply.