A late January/early February freeze wiped out two-thirds to three-quarters of Florida's blueberry crop this season. Initial damage estimates from February were considered severe, but the actual losses have continued to grow beyond what anyone expected at the time.

Florida is a critical early-season blueberry supplier for the U.S. market, bridging the gap before domestic production picks up in other states. A loss of this magnitude means buyers who relied on Florida volume are scrambling to source from elsewhere — Georgia, the Carolinas, or imported supplies.

Expect tighter supply and elevated pricing in the near-term blueberry market. Anyone buying fresh blueberries through early summer should be actively revisiting sourcing plans and communicating availability realities up the retail chain.

A new Alvarez & Marsal report finds that more grocery shoppers are planning to switch to lower-priced retailers altogether, not just trade down to store brands. This is a meaningful escalation in consumer price sensitivity that goes beyond typical value-seeking behavior.

For produce, this shift matters because value-format retailers like Aldi, Lidl, and Walmart tend to run leaner produce sets with less variety and more commodity focus. If shopper migration accelerates, category managers at traditional grocers may face volume softness while value players see increased demand.

This is a trend worth tracking closely as you plan second-half assortments and promotional calendars. Retailers that can credibly compete on produce value — without gutting the category — will be better positioned to retain and recapture shoppers.

California table grapes are on pace for one of the earliest seasons on record in 2026, running close to three weeks ahead of normal after an unusually warm spring in the state's key growing regions. This follows a broader pattern of early starts across multiple California commodities this year.

An early table grape arrival is significant for retailers and buyers who need to plan promotions, shelf resets, and import transitions — particularly for those currently running Chilean or other Southern Hemisphere programs. Timing the handoff becomes critical when domestic volume arrives sooner than expected.

Start talking to your California grape shippers now if you haven't already. The earlier-than-normal start window could compress the transition period and create short-term oversupply if buyers aren't ready to absorb volume.

The U.S. peach market is showing diverging conditions this season: California's clingstone processing sector is under serious pricing pressure, while the fresh market faces its own challenges as East Coast harvests kick off and contract talks continue. The two sides of the industry are telling very different stories right now.

California has historically been the backbone of the processing peach business, but that sector has been contracting for years as major buyers reduce contracts or exit altogether. Softer pricing expectations on the fresh side mean growers are caught in a tough spot across the board.

For fresh market buyers, early-season East Coast volume may offer some short-term opportunities at competitive prices. Watch how California fresh volumes develop as summer progresses — there could be windows to buy well, but the underlying structural pressure on growers isn't going away.

The global mango market is in a tricky transition window, with lower volumes out of Mexico, quality challenges in Peru and South Africa, and airfreight shortages all tightening availability for major importing regions including the U.S. Export restrictions in Mali are adding further pressure on West African supply.

Mexico is the largest supplier of fresh mangoes to the U.S. market, so any volume softness there has an outsized impact on domestic availability and pricing. The confluence of supply-side issues across multiple origin countries means there's limited ability to substitute volume easily.

Buyers managing mango programs should expect near-term pricing pressure and work closely with importers to lock in what's available. The second half of the year should improve as Brazil's season ramps up, but the current window is tight.

Mexico has approved a new certification framework requiring labor and environmental verification for key agroexports including avocados and berries. The move comes ahead of the upcoming USMCA review, signaling that trade compliance is only going to get more complex in the near term.

Mexico is the top supplier of avocados and a major berry source for the U.S. market. New certification requirements could add friction to the export pipeline — think slower paperwork, potential shipment delays, and cost increases that may eventually get passed down the chain.

Buyers and importers sourcing avocados and berries from Mexico should be talking to their suppliers now about what compliance looks like and whether timelines or costs will be affected. This is early-stage, but it's the kind of regulatory shift that compounds quickly.

U.S. tomato prices are up 22% year-over-year according to the latest CPI data, driven by a combination of a 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes, higher fuel and fertilizer costs, and bad weather during peak growing season in both Florida and Mexico. The hit is coming from multiple directions simultaneously, making it harder to isolate any single fix.

Mexico is the dominant supplier of fresh tomatoes to the U.S. market, so the tariff alone has significant structural pricing implications. Add weather disruptions on top of that, and buyers are looking at a supply picture that isn't improving quickly.

Category managers should expect continued pressure through at least the near-term window. This is a story worth flagging to retail partners — consumers are already feeling it at the shelf, and demand softness could follow if prices stay elevated.