Florida's agriculture sector is reeling after drought, freezes, and wildfires combined to cause an estimated $3.1 billion in crop losses during the first half of 2026. The state recorded its worst drought in two decades, while wildfires scorched more than 54,600 hectares statewide. Earlier freeze events added further damage to an already stressed growing season across multiple commodities.

This is one of the most significant multi-hazard agricultural events in Florida's recent history. The state is a major supplier of tomatoes, citrus, strawberries, and leafy greens to the U.S. market, meaning the ripple effects on availability and pricing will be felt well beyond state lines. Coming on top of already elevated produce inflation and tight supply in several categories, the timing couldn't be worse for buyers.

Watch for disaster relief requests at the federal level and assess your Florida-sourced categories now. Supply gaps from this season may not be fully offset by other growing regions, and pricing pressure could extend into fall.

The ProduceIQ Week 21 index shows produce prices remaining near average overall, but with notable surges in romaine and bell peppers heading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Declining tomato and wet-vegetable supplies are offsetting pressure in other categories, keeping the overall index from moving sharply higher.

Memorial Day is one of the biggest produce demand weeks of the year, and this year buyers are navigating a split market — some categories are cooling off while others are heating up fast. Romaine and pepper spikes are especially relevant for foodservice and deli buyers stocking up for grilling season. The tomato softening is notable given how elevated prices have been in recent weeks.

Use this week's data to calibrate your promotional planning and watch whether the romaine and pepper spikes hold post-holiday or normalize into June.

North Carolina sweet potato supply is running critically tight, with pricing tracking closely to elevated levels seen at this time last year. Industry sources say the consensus is that current pricing is strong, driven by low available inventory against steady demand. There's no near-term relief in sight as the next North Carolina crop won't be available until fall.

Sweet potatoes are a year-round staple in retail and foodservice, and North Carolina is by far the dominant U.S. producing state. When supply tightens there, the whole market feels it. Buyers relying on promotional programs or contracted volume should confirm availability with their suppliers now.

Expect pricing strength to persist through summer. If you're building a fall sweet potato program, now is the time to lock in sourcing conversations.

Washington State's raspberry industry is formally backing a letter urging U.S. trade negotiators to prioritize specialty crops during the upcoming USMCA review. The push comes as lower-priced imports — primarily from Mexico — and rising domestic production costs are squeezing growers to the point where long-term viability is in question.

Washington produces the majority of U.S. fresh and processed raspberries, and the sector has been under sustained margin pressure. The USMCA review is scheduled for 2026 and represents one of the few near-term policy windows where specialty crop protections could realistically be strengthened. This is the industry trying to get ahead of negotiations before the process locks in.

Buyers and category managers sourcing domestic raspberries should watch this space closely — the outcome of USMCA talks could meaningfully shift the long-term supply landscape for the category.

U.S. fresh produce prices climbed 1.7% in April, driven in significant part by rising energy costs that are flowing through the entire supply chain — from growing and cooling to transportation. Retailers are facing a mounting challenge: operational costs are soaring at the same time consumers are already stretched thin on grocery budgets.

This data point lands on top of an already concerning inflation backdrop. Recent CPI data showed fresh produce inflation running well above overall food inflation, and this April reading suggests the trend is continuing into spring. Energy costs are a structural headwind that doesn't resolve quickly, meaning the squeeze is unlikely to ease soon.

For category managers and buyers, the pressure to maintain value perception while protecting margins is intensifying. Promotions need to be strategic, and pricing conversations with suppliers will be harder to win this summer.

SNAP usage patterns are being disrupted by a combination of a government shutdown, benefit restriction waivers, and the provisions of the so-called 'Big Beautiful Bill' moving through Congress. Spending data from Numerator shows measurable shifts in how SNAP recipients are shopping, with implications for grocery retailers and fresh produce sales across lower-income consumer segments.

SNAP drives a significant portion of produce volume at grocery retail, particularly in value and discount formats. When the program experiences policy turbulence, it creates real volatility for fresh department performance — and any restrictions on SNAP-eligible categories would directly affect produce sales. This is an evolving situation that deserves close attention from anyone in retail or category management.

Monitor the progress of the Big Beautiful Bill and any regulatory guidance on SNAP waivers. If restrictions on fresh produce purchases tighten, it could meaningfully shift demand patterns heading into summer.

Cherry growers in Michigan's Traverse City region — which produces around 75% of the world's tart cherries — are increasingly listing orchards for sale as the economics of the business deteriorate. Rising production costs, labor shortages, weather volatility, and soft market pricing are all converging on growers at once, and 57 hectares of orchard land have recently come to market.

This is a structural shift, not just a rough season. Tart cherry supply was already under pressure after a brutal 2025 crop, and the loss of orchard acreage will take years to replace even if conditions improve. Buyers sourcing tart cherries for foodservice, baking, or ingredient applications should be thinking about longer-term supply security.

Watch for further consolidation in the Michigan cherry sector. The growers staying in will likely get larger, but overall domestic tart cherry supply may shrink meaningfully over the next several years.