Tomato prices in the U.S. have jumped 22% year-over-year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data. The spike is being driven by a perfect storm: a 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes, higher fuel and fertilizer costs, and adverse weather during peak growing season in both Florida and Mexico.

This is a significant squeeze for buyers and category managers. Mexico supplies the majority of fresh tomatoes sold in the U.S., so the tariff hit is broad and immediate — it's not isolated to one region or growing window. Florida's own season was also disrupted by weather, removing a key domestic alternative.

Watch for further pressure as the season transitions. If supply doesn't normalize and tariffs hold, retail pricing on tomatoes could continue climbing through summer. Buyers should be tracking alternate sourcing options and preparing for consumer sticker shock at the shelf.

Cherry growers in San Joaquin County are still assessing how much damage early-season heat spikes and recent storms caused to their 2026 crop. The full picture won't be clear until more field data comes in, but quality and yield losses are both on the table.

San Joaquin is one of California's primary cherry-growing counties, and any meaningful hit there ripples directly into domestic cherry supply during the peak spring window. This comes at a time when buyers are already navigating a complex import environment.

Keep a close eye on volume and sizing reports over the next two to three weeks. If losses are confirmed, expect tighter supply, higher prices, and potential quality inconsistencies at the packing level. Retailers building cherry promotions for Memorial Day should be in close contact with their suppliers now.

Mexico has approved a new certification framework for agricultural exports, introducing labor and environmental verification requirements for avocados and berries ahead of the upcoming USMCA review. Exporters will need to verify compliance with both sets of standards to ship to the U.S. and Canada.

This is a big deal for North American buyers. Mexico is the dominant supplier of avocados and a major source of fresh berries for U.S. retail. Any friction in the certification process — delays, increased costs, compliance failures — could affect supply flow and pricing, particularly during high-demand periods.

The timing tied to USMCA makes this a longer-term story worth watching. As the trade agreement comes up for review, both governments will be under pressure to demonstrate enforcement of labor and environmental standards. Buyers should ask their Mexican suppliers where they stand on compliance and flag any potential sourcing gaps now.

Container freight rates are up 50% and air cargo benchmarks are 25% higher, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. naval involvement in facilitating vessel transits is adding risk surcharges and capacity pressure across global logistics markets.

For the produce industry, this matters because higher freight costs flow directly into landed costs on imported goods. Categories like berries, tropical fruits, and off-season vegetables that rely on air or ocean freight from South America, Central America, or beyond are most exposed. Even items shipped domestically feel indirect pressure as trucking and intermodal markets tighten.

This is not yet at the level of disruption seen during peak COVID-era supply chain chaos, but the trend is moving in the wrong direction. Buyers importing produce should be pressure-testing logistics budgets and confirming carrier commitments now before rates climb further.

The USDA has finalized a new rule requiring retailers authorized to accept SNAP benefits to stock seven varieties of items across four staple food categories, including fruits and vegetables. The National Grocery Association has come out in support of the change.

This is a meaningful shift for produce buyers and category managers at any retailer that accepts SNAP. The rule raises the floor on how much fresh and whole food must be stocked, which could drive incremental produce volume at smaller-format and independent retailers that have historically carried less fresh inventory.

For larger retailers, the compliance bar may not feel dramatically different — but the rule signals a broader policy direction pushing fresh produce deeper into food access programs. Watch for how this affects assortment decisions at dollar stores, convenience formats, and smaller independents that participate in SNAP.

Potato supply out of Prince Edward Island, Canada is tightening fast. Colored varieties, especially yellows, hit a hard stop earlier than normal this season, even as demand remains strong. Island Growers Co. says yellow potatoes are essentially unavailable from PEI right now.

PEI is one of the most important potato-producing regions in eastern Canada and supplies a significant portion of the Northeast U.S. market. An early supply cutoff — before new crop arrives — creates a gap that buyers need to fill from other regions, typically mainland Canada or domestic U.S. sources.

New crop planting is underway, which means relief is coming — but not immediately. Buyers in the Northeast should be sourcing alternatives and communicating timelines to retail partners to avoid out-of-stocks on yellow varieties over the next several weeks.

California's table grape crush volume spiked 132% in 2025, meaning a massive volume of fruit that would typically move through fresh channels got diverted to processing instead. At the same time, processed raisin-type grapes dropped by over 50%.

When fresh table grapes get crushed at this scale, it usually signals a difficult fresh market — oversupply, low prices, or quality issues that make processing a better economic option for growers. This kind of volume shift has downstream implications for how much fresh fruit makes it to retail and foodservice.

For category managers, this is worth watching as the 2026 California grape season approaches. If growers adjusted acreage or management practices in response to last year's economics, it could affect fresh availability and pricing windows this coming summer and fall.