Canada produced more fresh vegetables in 2025, driven by continued growth in greenhouse output, but domestic availability declined for the seventh consecutive year as more production was directed to export markets, primarily the United States. The data comes from Statistics Canada.

Canada's greenhouse sector — centered in Ontario's Leamington belt and British Columbia — is a major supplier of tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers to U.S. retailers year-round. The fact that export volume is growing while domestic availability continues to contract suggests Canadian growers see stronger economics on the U.S. side of the border, a dynamic that could become politically sensitive given ongoing USMCA review negotiations.

For U.S. buyers sourcing Canadian greenhouse product, this trend suggests continued or expanded supply access. Worth monitoring whether any Canadian policy response to declining domestic availability eventually reshapes export volumes.

North American produce markets are shifting as seasonal production transitions play out. Limited availability is supporting prices for avocados, cucumbers, peppers, and strawberries, while tomato prices are easing as supply normalizes.

This kind of mid-season crossover is typical for early July, but the breadth of simultaneous transitions — multiple regions winding down while others ramp up — is creating patchwork supply conditions that are harder to navigate than a clean changeover. Buyers managing multiple categories are feeling the tension across the board.

Watch for further price movement on avocados and strawberries in the near term if the supply constraints hold. Tomato buyers may find some relief at the desk, but that window could be short depending on how quickly the next production region reaches volume.

Retailers have long used bananas as a loss leader, pricing them at or below cost to drive foot traffic. But mounting logistical costs and persistent inflation are shifting the financial burden squarely onto producers, who are increasingly unable to absorb the gap between what they're paid and what it costs to grow and ship the fruit.

Bananas are the most purchased item in the produce department at most major U.S. retailers — the psychological and traffic-driving power of a low banana price is hard to overstate. But if the supply chain economics become untenable for growers and exporters, the pressure to raise retail prices or restructure contracts will eventually reach buyers.

This is a slow-moving but structural shift worth watching. Category managers with banana programs should be monitoring contract terms and sourcing costs as the gap between retail pricing expectations and production reality continues to widen.

A broad coalition of U.S. produce stakeholders — including producers, shippers, distributors, marketers, agriculture exporters, and retailers — has sent a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative stressing the critical importance of USMCA to the fresh produce industry. The letter arrives as the USMCA review process is actively underway following the U.S. decision not to renew the agreement on its original terms.

The produce industry is among the most USMCA-dependent sectors in U.S. agriculture. A large share of fruits and vegetables sold in American grocery stores flow through the Mexico-U.S. trade corridor under USMCA's tariff framework. Any deterioration in those terms — through new tariffs, quotas, or renegotiated rules of origin — would hit supply costs directly.

The letter signals that the industry is treating this review as a high-stakes moment, not a routine check-in. Worth watching for any USTR response or movement in the formal review timeline.

Oregon pear growers are facing what the industry is describing as a crisis, with catastrophic returns, rising production costs, weather disruptions, and pest pressure combining to push growers to the edge. The industry is now formally requesting federal assistance to survive.

Oregon is one of the two major domestic pear-producing states, alongside Washington, and its output feeds a significant share of North American fresh pear supply. A distressed growing base in Oregon isn't just a regional story — it has real implications for availability and pricing across the category.

This situation is worth monitoring for any federal response and for signals about the 2026 Oregon harvest volume. Buyers sourcing domestic pears for fall programs should be evaluating contingency supply options now.

Monterey County, California recorded a total fruit and vegetable production value of $4.8 billion in 2025, a 3% decline from the prior year, according to the county's official crop report released July 7. Strawberries remained the county's highest-value crop, increasing 3% to $1.069 billion.

Monterey County is the backbone of U.S. leafy green and vegetable production — Salinas Valley alone accounts for an outsized share of national romaine, spinach, and mixed greens supply. A 3% decline in total value, even as strawberries rose, points to softness somewhere in the vegetable categories that drives most of the county's output.

For buyers with heavy California vegetable programs, the annual crop report is a useful benchmark for understanding where the growing base is heading. A second consecutive year of value decline would be a more significant signal about long-term production trends.