◣ Ripe Daily Brief
2026-09-17
01
Market
Produce had a brutal August: fruit volume down 6%, vegetables down 4%, and shoppers are pulling back hard
Fresh produce generated $9.1 billion in retail sales over the five weeks ending August 30, but both dollars and volume kept sliding. Fruit pound sales fell 6.1% year-over-year and vegetables dropped 4.2%, with salads and leafy greens posting the steepest declines following the cyclospora outbreak. Consumer confidence fell to 51.7 on the University of Michigan Sentiment Index, while gas prices above $4 and a SNAP enrollment drop to its lowest since 2019 squeezed grocery budgets further.
Apples and avocados were the standout bright spots, with apples leading all commodities in absolute dollar growth driven by demand rather than price alone. Potatoes and peppers also grew, while tomatoes, salad kits, carrots, broccoli, and mushrooms posted steep declines. Notably, vegetables dominated the top-10 growth list this month — a reversal from earlier in the year when berries and fruit led.
Two forward-looking signals are worth watching: GLP-1 medication use now affects roughly one in six Americans, reshaping meal patterns toward smaller, high-protein, nutrient-dense choices. A growing appetite for nostalgic and global-fusion flavors is also emerging. Both trends suggest category managers may need to rethink produce merchandising and product mix heading into Q4.
Apples and avocados were the standout bright spots, with apples leading all commodities in absolute dollar growth driven by demand rather than price alone. Potatoes and peppers also grew, while tomatoes, salad kits, carrots, broccoli, and mushrooms posted steep declines. Notably, vegetables dominated the top-10 growth list this month — a reversal from earlier in the year when berries and fruit led.
Two forward-looking signals are worth watching: GLP-1 medication use now affects roughly one in six Americans, reshaping meal patterns toward smaller, high-protein, nutrient-dense choices. A growing appetite for nostalgic and global-fusion flavors is also emerging. Both trends suggest category managers may need to rethink produce merchandising and product mix heading into Q4.
02
Weather
Peru's mango crop is headed for a 60% collapse. El Niño is making it a worst-case scenario.
Mango expert Milton Calle is forecasting a roughly 60% decline in Peru's national mango production compared to last year, with the hardest-hit regions being Motupe, Olmos, and Piura during the December–January peak window. Both a global El Niño (category 3–4) and a coastal El Niño (category 1–2) are intensifying simultaneously, with ENFEN now putting the probability of each at 100%.
The logistical picture is especially grim in Motupe and Olmos, where flooding ravines and damaged roads will make harvesting extremely difficult. In Piura, light rainfall in November alone could cause anthracnose to affect up to 30% of the fruit, particularly in orchards with dense foliage and sparse flowering. The Casma region, which has seen only about 10% flowering so far, faces additional risk from swelling rivers and potential bridge damage.
Peru is a critical import origin for North American mangoes, particularly during the winter window when domestic supply is unavailable. Buyers and category managers sourcing Peruvian fruit for December through February programs should watch this situation closely — a 60% production drop of this magnitude would be one of the most significant supply disruptions to hit the category in recent years.
The logistical picture is especially grim in Motupe and Olmos, where flooding ravines and damaged roads will make harvesting extremely difficult. In Piura, light rainfall in November alone could cause anthracnose to affect up to 30% of the fruit, particularly in orchards with dense foliage and sparse flowering. The Casma region, which has seen only about 10% flowering so far, faces additional risk from swelling rivers and potential bridge damage.
Peru is a critical import origin for North American mangoes, particularly during the winter window when domestic supply is unavailable. Buyers and category managers sourcing Peruvian fruit for December through February programs should watch this situation closely — a 60% production drop of this magnitude would be one of the most significant supply disruptions to hit the category in recent years.
03
Market
Only one-third of shoppers see produce as a great value. The rest are cutting back or trading down.
New consumer research presented at the Southeast Produce Council's Southern Innovations event shows that financially stretched shoppers are fundamentally changing how they engage with the produce department. Total U.S. retail produce dollar sales were up 1.2% year-to-date through late July 2026, but unit sales declined 0.5%, reflecting a market where consumers are paying more while buying less. Fruit reached $50.6 billion in sales while vegetables generated $46.0 billion, with modest dollar growth masking volume softness across much of the category.
Only about 36% of consumers describe produce as one of the best values in the grocery store. Another 49% say it feels expensive but worth it, and 15% describe fresh produce as feeling like a luxury — a share that rises significantly among financially struggling shoppers. Among those under budget pressure, the most common response is buying smaller quantities (46%), followed by choosing cheaper varieties (39%), switching to frozen (32%), or only buying on sale (29%).
For buyers and category managers, the data underscores a critical dynamic: produce is still considered important by most shoppers, but the category is losing volume as consumers stretch their dollars. Retailers that can credibly demonstrate value — through pricing, promotions, or convenience — may have the best chance of defending volume as economic pressure persists through the rest of 2026.
Only about 36% of consumers describe produce as one of the best values in the grocery store. Another 49% say it feels expensive but worth it, and 15% describe fresh produce as feeling like a luxury — a share that rises significantly among financially struggling shoppers. Among those under budget pressure, the most common response is buying smaller quantities (46%), followed by choosing cheaper varieties (39%), switching to frozen (32%), or only buying on sale (29%).
For buyers and category managers, the data underscores a critical dynamic: produce is still considered important by most shoppers, but the category is losing volume as consumers stretch their dollars. Retailers that can credibly demonstrate value — through pricing, promotions, or convenience — may have the best chance of defending volume as economic pressure persists through the rest of 2026.
04
Market
Smaller apple and potato crops are helping growers.
AgWest's latest quarterly assessment finds that lower crop volumes are translating into better market conditions for several key North American commodities. Apple growers are currently rated slightly unprofitable, but the 12-month outlook is bullish: the 2026 crop is expected to come in smaller than 2025's large harvest, bringing supply more in line with demand and supporting a price recovery. Apple packers remain slightly profitable with a neutral outlook.
On the potato side, contracted potatoes are slightly profitable with a neutral near-term outlook supported by stable processor contracts, while uncontracted potatoes remain slightly unprofitable but carry a bullish 12-month outlook as a smaller regional crop tightens the supply-demand balance. Water shortages could further reduce the uncontracted potato crop, which would likely provide additional price support. Lemon growers sit at breakeven as South American imports and weak markets pressure prices, while orange growers are slightly profitable despite quality and sizing challenges.
For buyers planning fall and winter programs, the apple and potato signals are notable: lower supply relative to demand is the driver of improvement, meaning pricing is likely to firm as the season progresses. Watch for the uncontracted potato situation in particular, where water availability could be the variable that tightens supply further.
On the potato side, contracted potatoes are slightly profitable with a neutral near-term outlook supported by stable processor contracts, while uncontracted potatoes remain slightly unprofitable but carry a bullish 12-month outlook as a smaller regional crop tightens the supply-demand balance. Water shortages could further reduce the uncontracted potato crop, which would likely provide additional price support. Lemon growers sit at breakeven as South American imports and weak markets pressure prices, while orange growers are slightly profitable despite quality and sizing challenges.
For buyers planning fall and winter programs, the apple and potato signals are notable: lower supply relative to demand is the driver of improvement, meaning pricing is likely to firm as the season progresses. Watch for the uncontracted potato situation in particular, where water availability could be the variable that tightens supply further.
05
Supply
Chilean blueberry exports grew 2.7% but U.S. shipments fell 13%. New varieties are changing the mix fast.
Chile exported approximately 92,900 tons of fresh blueberries in the 2025/26 season, up 2.7% from the prior year and above initial estimates, according to the IBO Global Blueberry Report 2026. The headline growth number obscures a major geographic shift: U.S. shipments fell 13%, attributed to tariff and trade factors, while Europe surged 20% and Canada jumped 32%. New variety exports grew 14% and now account for 24% of total Chilean fresh blueberry exports, up from 21% the prior season.
The season started earlier and was more concentrated than usual due to higher accumulated growing degree days, which pushed the Duke variety harvest roughly 20 days early — resulting in lower dry matter, smaller sizing, and softer fruit early on. Processing is increasingly absorbing fruit and varieties that no longer qualify for fresh-market programs, with frozen blueberry exports reaching 72,464 tons in 2025, up 46%.
For North American buyers, the 13% decline in Chilean fresh shipments to the U.S. is worth understanding in context: this is happening as Peru's blueberry crop is also under El Niño pressure. The combined effect on import availability and pricing during the Southern Hemisphere supply window — roughly November through February — is a situation category managers should be actively modeling right now.
The season started earlier and was more concentrated than usual due to higher accumulated growing degree days, which pushed the Duke variety harvest roughly 20 days early — resulting in lower dry matter, smaller sizing, and softer fruit early on. Processing is increasingly absorbing fruit and varieties that no longer qualify for fresh-market programs, with frozen blueberry exports reaching 72,464 tons in 2025, up 46%.
For North American buyers, the 13% decline in Chilean fresh shipments to the U.S. is worth understanding in context: this is happening as Peru's blueberry crop is also under El Niño pressure. The combined effect on import availability and pricing during the Southern Hemisphere supply window — roughly November through February — is a situation category managers should be actively modeling right now.