The Banana Association of North America is warning that the system keeping bananas affordable and available in U.S. stores is under growing stress from multiple directions simultaneously. Diesel prices have surged to $6.20 per gallon — up 76% from $3.52 at the start of the year — while fertilizer, plastics, carton, and pallet costs have also climbed sharply in 2026. The escalating Iran war is being cited as a factor driving bunker fuel costs for ocean shipping.

On top of input costs, banana growers in Ecuador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Colombia, Honduras, Peru, and Mexico are battling Black Sigatoka fungal disease and, more seriously, Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4), a soil-borne pathogen capable of killing banana plants outright. The developing 2026 El Niño is adding further uncertainty, with the World Meteorological Organization projecting a near-100% probability of the event continuing through February 2027 and potentially becoming the strongest on record. El Niño can bring flooding in some Latin American growing regions and drought in others.

Bananas remain the most purchased produce item in North American retail, which makes supply chain stress here a category-level concern for buyers and category managers. Watch for freight cost increases to flow through to landed costs heading into Q4 and Q1.

A new analysis from Preciso Consultoría estimates that El Niño will cost Peru's top 20 agricultural exports approximately 969,000 tons and $1.498 billion in FOB value across 2026 and 2027 compared to a no-El Niño scenario. Export volumes are projected to run 7% below trend this year and 14% below in 2027, with the damage peaking in the second year as crops that flowered under extreme heat come to harvest and November–April rains compound disease and logistics problems.

Mangoes are the hardest-hit commodity, with PROMANGO estimating production of just 178,595 tons against a normal 557,440 — a 49% drop below trend in 2027. Table grapes are projected 4% below trend, with northern region Piura far more exposed to rain damage than Ica. The analysis notes that higher prices — projected to rise from $2.61 to $2.75 per kilogram — will offset only part of the volume loss, leaving total export value roughly 9% below the no-El Niño scenario.

For buyers with fall and winter programs built around Peruvian mangoes, grapes, or blueberries, this analysis reinforces that 2027 supply disruptions are not a tail risk — they're the base case. Worth monitoring whether sourcing alternatives from other origins can cover the anticipated shortfall.

Demand for premium mangoes in the U.S. — including organics, super jumbo sizes, and specialty varieties like Keitt and Calypso — has grown 22% since 2023, adding more than 700,000 households buying premium mangoes compared with two years ago, according to data shared by Mission Produce. Premium mango shoppers spend approximately $43 annually on the category — roughly three times the category average — and make nine purchase trips per year, double the frequency of non-premium shoppers. Nearly one in six new mango shoppers entered the category through a premium variety rather than an everyday one.

The premium shopper profile skews heavily toward Gen Z, Millennial, Hispanic, and Asian households. Research indicates that when both everyday and premium options are available, many shoppers add premium fruit to their basket rather than substituting, resulting in incremental category growth rather than trade-off. Mission is positioning its Organic California Keitt Mangoes as a limited-season premium option targeting these consumer segments.

For category managers, this data suggests premium mango placement and assortment decisions can directly lift category basket size and trip frequency — not just trade shoppers up. Worth monitoring how El Niño-driven supply disruptions in Peru and Ecuador may affect premium SKU availability and pricing heading into 2027.

Chile's Table Grape Committee is projecting exports of 67.9 million 8.2-kilo boxes for the 2026/27 season — a 16.5% increase over last season's 58.3 million boxes and a return to 2024/25 levels. Licensed varieties will dominate, accounting for 72% of total exports at around 49 million boxes, with Sweet Globe, Autumn Crisp, and Timpson together making up nearly 87% of the white grape segment.

The bigger story is timing. The national export peak is shifting from week 12 to week 11, and 67% of total volume is projected to be shipped by that point — versus 56.4% last season. That means roughly 12.6 million more boxes moving through the supply chain earlier in the season than buyers may be accustomed to planning for. White grape volume alone is up 17.7%, adding more than 4 million boxes year over year.

For category managers building Q1 2027 programs, this earlier and heavier Chilean supply window is worth building into promotional planning now. The front-loading of volume could create pricing pressure in January and February if demand doesn't keep pace.

A North American berry market worth approximately $10 billion is sustained by a coordinated seasonal supply structure across Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, according to Driscoll's Mexico vice president Miguel Ángel Curiel. The U.S. accounts for around $8 billion of that figure. Canada supplies primarily during summer, the U.S. covers autumn and spring, and Mexico fills the critical winter window from autumn through spring. More than 98% of Mexican berry volume stays within North America, reflecting the short shelf life constraints — strawberries, raspberries, blackberries, and blueberries can have just an eight-to-ten-day window from harvest to consumption.

The regional integration has enabled year-round availability of previously seasonal items. Strawberries, for example, were largely unavailable in much of the U.S. during winter before Mexican production expanded to cover November through February. Transit times within North America of three to five days compare favorably to 15–20 days by sea to Europe and 18–35 days to Asia, limiting meaningful export diversion to those markets to a small share of Mexican volume.

The upcoming USMCA review could affect trade flows and commitments across all three countries, with food trade expected to be part of the discussions. For buyers and category managers with year-round berry programs, understanding which origin fills which seasonal window — and where trade policy could create friction — is increasingly relevant planning information.

New consumer research from marketing agency Fusion finds that 62% of online grocery shoppers cite fresh produce as a leading reason they shop for groceries online — a significant shift from produce's longstanding reputation as one of e-commerce's most resistant categories. The study also found that 97% of online grocery shoppers include fresh produce in their orders, suggesting the category has moved from occasional add-on to a staple of the digital cart. U.S. online grocery sales grew 21.5% year over year in July 2026, according to Brick Meets Click, with the channel expected to represent 17% of total U.S. grocery sales by 2029.

Confidence in buying produce online has increased for 65% of respondents, with 92% reporting they are mostly or completely satisfied with the fresh produce they receive. Convenience is a key driver — 56% say buying produce online saves time and 54% find it more convenient than in-store. More than 90% of respondents place their online grocery orders via smartphone, putting strong emphasis on product imagery, freshness descriptions, and clear substitution options.

Packaging emerged as the top opportunity identified in the research, with shoppers indicating that packaging which keeps produce fresh longer would increase their confidence in online ordering. For produce suppliers and category managers, this data suggests that e-commerce is no longer a secondary channel for fresh — and that packaging and digital presentation are now commercial levers worth investing in.