A new analysis from Preciso Consultoría estimates that El Niño will cost Peru's top 20 agricultural exports approximately 969,000 tons and $1.498 billion in FOB value across 2026 and 2027 compared to a no-El Niño scenario. Export volumes are projected to run 7% below trend this year and 14% below in 2027, with the damage peaking in the second year as crops that flowered under extreme heat come to harvest and November–April rains compound disease and logistics problems.
Mangoes are the hardest-hit commodity, with PROMANGO estimating production of just 178,595 tons against a normal 557,440 — a 49% drop below trend in 2027. Table grapes are projected 4% below trend, with northern region Piura far more exposed to rain damage than Ica. The analysis notes that higher prices — projected to rise from $2.61 to $2.75 per kilogram — will offset only part of the volume loss, leaving total export value roughly 9% below the no-El Niño scenario.
For buyers with fall and winter programs built around Peruvian mangoes, grapes, or blueberries, this analysis reinforces that 2027 supply disruptions are not a tail risk — they're the base case. Worth monitoring whether sourcing alternatives from other origins can cover the anticipated shortfall.