U.S. avocado prices surged almost 48% in just two weeks, with USDA-reported average prices for two-layer cartons climbing from $25.61 to $37.82. The driver is a sharp drop in shipments from Mexico as the country transitions toward summer production, tightening available supply at a critical moment.

This is a concrete price data point layered on top of the ongoing Mexican avocado supply story. While force majeure declarations and harvest holdbacks have been covered recently, this USDA-reported pricing spike gives buyers a specific, current number to work with when managing category margins and promotional planning.

Watch for further price volatility as Peruvian and other Southern Hemisphere origin volumes ramp up — the speed at which alternative supply fills the Mexican gap will likely determine whether prices stabilize or keep climbing through early summer.