Hurricane Polo dissipated over northwest Mexico after making landfall in Baja California Sur and near Guaymas, Sonora. According to a Markon Cooperative update, the primary concerns are flooding, saturated fields, power outages, and transportation delays — not the broad crop destruction that many feared when the storm was tracking toward key growing regions. Growers are still assessing fields as conditions allow.

The storm came at a sensitive time for Sonora's fall vegetable season, which was already navigating volatile post-El Niño weather when Polo arrived. Earlier assessments had flagged watermelon, squash, peppers, and asparagus as the most exposed crops given their production windows and geography.

The situation appears better than worst-case scenarios, but field assessments are ongoing. Watch for updates on asparagus in particular — supply was already at multi-year lows before the storm hit, and even moderate harvest delays from saturated fields could extend the tight market further into October.

Mexico is entering its dominant supply window — covering roughly 95% of U.S. avocado needs — with a crop that's better matched to demand than last year's. According to Stonehill Produce's David Billings, the season is running about 7-10% ahead of demand and prices are landing close to where they were a year ago, with promotability across jumbos, 48s, 60s, 70s, 84s and smaller sizes. The crop is slightly smaller than last year's and a bit behind schedule, avoiding the "loca" crop carryover problem that created late-season complications in 2025.

Last year's crop matured early, drove up oil content, and meant a lot of fruit never made it to the U.S. market. This year's timing is cleaner. California still has some fruit available but is largely in specialty positioning, and Peruvian shipments have ended. Some Colombian supply is also entering the channel.

Billings notes that avocados could be a strong category play for retailers looking to rebuild produce basket size after the Cyclospora iceberg lettuce outbreak softened shopper confidence this summer. Watch for promotional programming to ramp up as Mexican volume stabilizes through the next several months.

Peru's blueberry trade group Proarandanos has cut its export forecast again, now projecting around 366,000 tons for the 2026-27 season — 4.2% below its September estimate and 4.4% below last season's actual shipments. The catch: Peru has 15% more hectares under production than a year ago. El Niño's impact is proving far more severe than anticipated. Cumulative exports through week 38 were running 18.7% ahead of last year, masking a sharp recent reversal.

The next eight weeks are the real problem. Proarandanos projects 108,000 tons from week 39 onward — 31.2% below the same period last season. Instead of a volume peak, they're calling it a plateau at roughly 13,500 tons per week. Organic blueberry volumes are also expected to fall well short of last season's peak.

For U.S. buyers currently relying on Peruvian supply to carry berry programs through fall, this is a material gap. Watch for tightening availability and potential price pressure through November, particularly as California's domestic season has already wound down.

Japan's Ministry of Agriculture entered the final stage of its review process in September for potentially expanding fresh U.S. potato imports beyond their current chip-processing-only restriction. The review, which began following a formal U.S. request in 2020, now requires bilateral consultations on quarantine measures covering 21 pests and pathogens under Japan's Plant Protection Act. A senior ministry official indicated the timeline could accelerate depending on how quickly the U.S. responds to Japan's phytosanitary requirements — potentially reaching a decision in about a year rather than the two to three years originally projected.

Domestic Japanese growers in Hokkaido, Nagasaki, and Kagoshima have raised concerns about both disease risk and price competition from lower-cost U.S. supply. Japan already imports frozen and processed potatoes from multiple countries but maintains a restriction on fresh product. Before any final decision, the ministry plans public consultations and expert panels.

This is a slow-moving but potentially significant market access development for U.S. potato growers and shippers. Worth monitoring alongside broader U.S.-Japan agricultural trade dynamics, particularly given the current tariff environment.

A prolonged drought in Wisconsin's Chippewa Valley has stressed apple crops this season, with growers relying on nearly continuous irrigation through part of the summer after record-dry conditions in May and again in August. At Connell's Family Orchard, co-owner Rick Connell reports that drought stress led to smaller Cortland apples and splitting in about a third of the Haralson crop after dry conditions were followed by rainfall.

The split Haralsons are being redirected to cider rather than the fresh market. Heavy soil at the orchard helped retain some moisture, and early-season rainfall provided a buffer — limiting the overall impact on the fresh crop. Connell expects consumer-facing quality to be largely unaffected across most varieties.

The story carries a forward-looking signal worth noting: Connell says the fruit set for next year's crop is already established and currently looks strong. But the broader pattern of drought-driven size variability and splitting adds to the list of weather pressures hitting Midwestern apple supply this season, alongside the well-documented frost and wildfire impacts in the East and Pacific Northwest.