USDA data shows total U.S. retail produce ad counts hit 326,494 for the Labor Day week, up 6% from the prior week and 14% higher than the same week last year. Watermelons, cantaloupes, corn, avocados, colored bell peppers, zucchini, and stone fruit dominated promotional activity as retailers leaned into both late-summer staples and early fall transition items. Several chains also ran dedicated Rosh Hashanah sections featuring pomegranates, apples, leeks, beets, and sweet potatoes.

On pricing, peaches led the declines — white peaches dropped 29% and yellow peaches fell 10% year over year. Avocados were down 20%, seedless watermelons fell 13%, and yellow nectarines dropped 14%. On the increase side, cucumbers were up 12% and green bell peppers rose 10%, while Russet potatoes in 5-lb. bags jumped 12%. Sweet corn saw significant decreases in advertised prices.

The data offers a useful snapshot of where promotional energy is concentrated heading into the fall transition. Categories showing price decreases alongside high ad volume — like avocados and stone fruit — may be worth watching for margin compression at the category level.

Chilean agro-climatologist Patricio González is flagging a dangerous combination of late rains, high temperatures, frosts, and possible hailstorms heading into the Southern Hemisphere spring — right as orchards across the country's central zone are in full budding and flowering stage. Cherries face cracking risk from rain followed by heat. Table grapes are vulnerable to botrytis. Apples and pears could see increased venturia (scab) pressure. Frost events as low as -1°C for 90 minutes can cause necrosis that prevents fruit from developing at all.

Chile is one of the most important winter import origins for North America, supplying cherries, table grapes, stone fruit, and pome fruit during the December-to-March window. Any meaningful crop loss at this stage of the season — particularly in cherries — could affect U.S. and Canadian availability and pricing later this year and into early 2027. González also warned of potential extreme summer heat between December and February based on previous El Niño patterns.

This story is distinct from the recently sent piece on Chile's cherry crop forecast reaching a record 667,000 MT — that projection was made before these spring weather risks emerged. Worth monitoring weather reports out of Chile's Maule, O'Higgins, and Metropolitan regions over the next 6–8 weeks as critical growth stages play out.

California confirmed its first-ever detection of Huanglongbing (HLB), also known as citrus greening disease, in Imperial County — specifically on a residential property in Calexico. State and federal agencies have removed the infected tree, launched inspections within a 250-meter radius, and established a mandatory quarantine zone with a 5-mile radius around the site. No citrus nursery stock or plant parts may leave the restricted area, and commercial fruit can only move out after cleaning and packing.

HLB is considered the most destructive citrus disease in the world — there is no cure, and infected trees eventually die. The detection follows the first trapping of an Asian Citrus Psyllid carrying HLB bacteria in Calexico back in November 2025. California already has six active HLB quarantine zones across Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura counties, where more than 10,700 infected trees have been removed since 2012.

Imperial County sits adjacent to major Coachella Valley citrus-growing territory, making this detection worth watching closely. Any spread into commercial groves could affect supply and add compliance costs for growers and shippers operating in or near the region.

The Washington Apple Commission is projecting this season's crop to come in 7% to 10% below last year's harvest, a meaningful pullback for the country's dominant apple-producing state. Washington supplies the vast majority of fresh apples sold across North American retail and foodservice, so a crop reduction of this scale has real implications for availability and pricing through the storage season.

This follows a recently sent story covering broader U.S. apple production being down 7% nationally, and another on H-2A labor pressures affecting growers. The Washington-specific commission data adds a concrete, source-confirmed number to what had been a developing picture. Combined with Virginia freeze losses reducing Eastern supply, the overall domestic apple market is entering fall with tighter inventory than last year.

Buyers and category managers sourcing tree fruit for fall and winter programs should monitor Washington shipment volumes and FOB pricing closely as harvest progresses. Any further weather or labor disruptions in the Wenatchee or Yakima valleys could tighten supply faster than the headline numbers suggest.

Back-to-school season is driving renewed demand for fresh-cut produce snack packs, with Nickey Gregory Co. reporting steady year-over-year growth in school snack pack programs. The company ships half-cup portion packs — 50 to a case — covering around 50 different fruit and vegetable items including apple slices, orange slices, carrot sticks, and celery sticks, designed to meet school nutrition requirements and save staff prep time. Apple slices remain the top-selling item with a 21-day shelf life, but schools are also experimenting with tri-colored cauliflower, jicama sticks, dragon fruit, and kiwi.

On the foodservice side, the company is seeing a parallel trend: restaurants and food businesses are ordering more fresh-cut ingredients because they don't have the kitchen labor to do the cutting themselves. This mirrors a broader industry shift where labor savings are becoming the primary commercial driver for fresh-cut adoption — more so than price or convenience alone.

For produce salespeople and category managers, the fresh-cut segment offers a growing channel worth tracking, particularly as labor costs remain elevated across foodservice. The school nutrition program pipeline in particular is tied to federal grant funding, which can create relatively predictable demand through the academic year.

Growers in North Dakota's River Valley region are projecting red and yellow potato volumes down roughly 20–25% from last year, driven by a rough growing season. Heavy rains in early June drowned out about 15% of planted acres in the northern valley, while the southern end — particularly around Grand Forks — ran dry all season, limiting yield potential. A late-August rain event helped with harvest conditions but came too late to benefit early varieties.

Demand dynamics are adding another layer of complexity. Red potato demand has been soft for the past year and a half, while yellow potato demand continues to grow — though growers are beginning to wonder when yellows become oversupplied. Russet pricing has been running below the cost of production for two years, which has put downward pressure on colored variety pricing as well. Harvest is expected to begin around September 10, with storage shipments not moving until late October.

With volumes tighter out of North Dakota this season, there's some hope for pricing improvement — but growers note that the potato market has become increasingly national rather than regional, so supply from other states will have a strong influence on whether prices actually recover.

Three significant retail developments landed this week worth tracking together. Costco reported August net sales of $23.7 billion, up 9.9% year over year, with fiscal year sales reaching $297.3 billion — a 10.2% annual increase. Target confirmed it will open eight new stores this fall across Mississippi, New York, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, part of a plan to add more than 300 locations by 2035. And Amazon is doubling down on perishable delivery, having launched same-day fresh grocery delivery last year and continuing to expand that capability.

For the produce industry, these three moves together signal continued competition at the retail level for fresh food share. Costco's strong sales numbers suggest warehouse-format fresh volume remains robust. Amazon's perishable push is creating pressure on traditional grocers to match convenience and speed. Target's store expansion adds new volume opportunities for suppliers in those markets.

Category managers and salespeople should watch how perishable performance — especially produce — factors into retailer investment decisions heading into 2027 planning cycles. Amazon's growing perishable footprint in particular is worth monitoring for its effect on demand patterns and delivery expectations.