Chilean agro-climatologist Patricio González is flagging a dangerous combination of late rains, high temperatures, frosts, and possible hailstorms heading into the Southern Hemisphere spring — right as orchards across the country's central zone are in full budding and flowering stage. Cherries face cracking risk from rain followed by heat. Table grapes are vulnerable to botrytis. Apples and pears could see increased venturia (scab) pressure. Frost events as low as -1°C for 90 minutes can cause necrosis that prevents fruit from developing at all.
Chile is one of the most important winter import origins for North America, supplying cherries, table grapes, stone fruit, and pome fruit during the December-to-March window. Any meaningful crop loss at this stage of the season — particularly in cherries — could affect U.S. and Canadian availability and pricing later this year and into early 2027. González also warned of potential extreme summer heat between December and February based on previous El Niño patterns.
This story is distinct from the recently sent piece on Chile's cherry crop forecast reaching a record 667,000 MT — that projection was made before these spring weather risks emerged. Worth monitoring weather reports out of Chile's Maule, O'Higgins, and Metropolitan regions over the next 6–8 weeks as critical growth stages play out.