After Hurricane Polo made landfall near Guaymas and moved through southern Sonora, growers are just beginning to assess crop damage across key fall growing regions. Fields in Guaymas and Hermosillo that had recently started production — including watermelon, soft squash, and zucchini — were hit with heavy rain and wind, and growers say it will take at least seven to ten days before real damage totals are known. In Mexicali, fields became too wet to harvest and several packing sheds lost power, though both have since resumed operations.

Hurricane Polo represents the first major storm of the season to push into the Gulf of California and make landfall in Sonora, an unusual track that caught some growers off guard. The fall Sonora season — which typically runs October through early December — is just getting started, and short-term harvest delays are already expected to create a few days of supply gaps and push up spot market pricing for affected items. Asparagus supplies from Southern Baja are also under pressure, with harvests curtailed or canceled and jumbo and large sizes especially tight.

Watch spot prices on squash, zucchini, watermelon, hot peppers, and asparagus over the next week as field assessments come in. The storm degraded quickly after landfall, which is positive news, but residual moisture and mud could extend harvest delays beyond initial estimates. A second system, Tropical Storm Rachel, remains worth monitoring for any potential follow-on impact to Baja later this week.

The Sonora vegetable season is underway with squash harvest already started and cucumbers, green beans, eggplant, and peppers coming online shortly. Growers entered the season after weeks of extreme swings — temperatures near 120°F in fields followed by cold, rainy, hail-producing weather — and preparation focused heavily on managing excess rainfall rather than the typical heat concerns. All fields are planted and growers are now watching how their prep holds up.

Sonora is one of the most critical winter vegetable regions for North America, supplying squash, cucumbers, peppers, and more through the Nogales, Arizona crossing from October into June. SunFed, one of the region's major shippers, notes squash is its largest commodity and the company received its first Sonora squash three weeks ago. Quality-tier percentages for squash may run lower than usual due to rain and hail damage, though specifications themselves will remain unchanged — product will just sort differently than a clean-weather year.

Watch availability and grade distribution on squash and cucumbers as October gets going. Proximity to the border keeps transit times short, which helps, but weather variability throughout the growing season means growers are managing week to week rather than making longer-term projections.

Washington apple growers are heading into the 2026 harvest expecting firmer prices and a crop close to the state's three-to-five year average of around 129 million 40-pound boxes. Jon DeVaney of the Washington Tree Fruit Association notes that prices strengthened late in the prior marketing season and are expected to hold. Growers are also reporting excellent eating quality and good color development despite drought and smoke concerns during the growing season.

A significant driver of price support is frost damage in Pennsylvania and Virginia, where winter conditions cut projected yields by as much as half in some areas — reducing overall U.S. crop size and leaving Washington with more pricing power than it might otherwise have. The broader sector is still recovering financially from several difficult prior seasons, with some orchard removal occurring and others at risk of becoming under-farmed as operating credit tightens.

Cosmic Crisp continues its rise and is now expected to potentially reach the number one spot in Washington within three to five years, according to the Washington Apple Commission. Labor remains the largest input cost, with selective harvesting and automation technology drawing increasing interest. Category managers building fall and holiday apple programs should find Washington positioning favorably this season.

With California and Peru winding down their avocado seasons, Mexico is reasserting itself as the dominant North American supply source. Mexico produced approximately 6.0 billion pounds of avocados in 2025, exporting around 2.38 billion pounds to the U.S. alone. Industry leaders say the real competitive edge this season won't come from raw volume but from how well the supply chain can match specific sizes and grades to the right markets before fruit is even packed.

Tim Beerup of Fronterra describes the core challenge: an avocado tree produces a full portfolio of sizes and grades, not just the #1 48s and 60s that drive retail. Smaller sizes, lower grades, and specialty pack configurations need to be channeled into bag programs, foodservice, processing, and wholesale channels — and the decisions that make or break that process happen before harvest, when orchard intelligence and customer demand can still influence sourcing and timing.

North American buyers are also raising the bar beyond price and availability, with growing expectations around quality consistency, ripeness management, traceability, and communication. As Mexican volumes increase through Q4, category managers should watch how size distribution develops in early season orchards and whether retail-ready supply in key sizes stays consistent with program commitments.

ProHass now estimates Peru's total Hass avocado export volume for 2026 will come in 1.9% below last season — a sharp reversal from the 6% growth the industry was targeting at the start of the year. El Niño drove warmer temperatures that slowed the development of larger fruit sizes and pushed dry matter accumulation behind schedule, forcing many growers to delay harvest by three to four weeks across full batches.

The U.S. market saw the steepest decline in Peruvian volumes. ProHass managing director Arturo Medina attributes this not to weak American demand but to a large Mexican crop and a strong California season that left less room on U.S. shelves for Peruvian fruit. Europe, which accounts for about 67% of cumulative Peru shipments through week 38, held up better, with the Netherlands remaining the top transshipment hub. Asia continued to grow, with South Korea recording one of the year's largest percentage increases in Peruvian imports.

With Peru's season wrapping up and California's avocado program also winding down, Mexico is now reasserting itself as the dominant North American supply source heading into fall. Worth monitoring how Mexican volume ramp-up and size distribution affect pricing and program positioning through Q4.