With California and Peru winding down their avocado seasons, Mexico is reasserting itself as the dominant North American supply source. Mexico produced approximately 6.0 billion pounds of avocados in 2025, exporting around 2.38 billion pounds to the U.S. alone. Industry leaders say the real competitive edge this season won't come from raw volume but from how well the supply chain can match specific sizes and grades to the right markets before fruit is even packed.
Tim Beerup of Fronterra describes the core challenge: an avocado tree produces a full portfolio of sizes and grades, not just the #1 48s and 60s that drive retail. Smaller sizes, lower grades, and specialty pack configurations need to be channeled into bag programs, foodservice, processing, and wholesale channels — and the decisions that make or break that process happen before harvest, when orchard intelligence and customer demand can still influence sourcing and timing.
North American buyers are also raising the bar beyond price and availability, with growing expectations around quality consistency, ripeness management, traceability, and communication. As Mexican volumes increase through Q4, category managers should watch how size distribution develops in early season orchards and whether retail-ready supply in key sizes stays consistent with program commitments.