The USDA's September Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook paints a divided picture for fall produce. California table grapes are forecast at 1.15 million tons, up 10% from last year and 13% above the 2022–24 average, with fresh shipments through week 37 already running 20% above the prior three-year average. Meanwhile, the U.S. apple crop is forecast at 10.4 billion pounds, down 6% from 2025, with Pennsylvania down 58% and Virginia down 48% due to spring freeze damage. The U.S. pear crop is forecast to be the third-lowest since 1972 at 650,000 tons, down 15%.

Peaches are also down 15% from 2025, with declines forecast in six of seven surveyed states. On the citrus side, U.S. output for 2025/26 rose 6.5%, with Valencia oranges up 17% and navels up 12%. Lemon output slipped 2%. Kiwifruit imports are already past the previous full-season record with two months left in the marketing year.

For buyers, this is a critical planning document heading into fall and winter. Abundant table grapes create promotional opportunity now, while the deep apple and pear shortfalls — especially in the East — will likely support prices and squeeze program availability. Watch for domestic shortfalls in apples and pears to create pressure to source from import origins.

Global fresh cherry production is forecast to hit 5.4 million tons in 2026/27, up 17% and the highest volume on record according to USDA FAS. Turkey is the story of the season — after frost devastated last year's crop, output is projected to nearly triple to 1 million tons. Chile is forecast at 727,000 tons, with exports expected to rise 80,000 tons to 650,000 tons. China's crop is forecast at 1.02 million tons, and its imports are expected to climb 12% to 560,000 tons.

The U.S. is moving in the opposite direction. Domestic cherry output is forecast to fall more than 20%, with Pacific Northwest freeze damage wiping out gains elsewhere. U.S. fresh cherry exports are projected to drop nearly 25% to 62,000 tons, and June–July shipments from the Pacific Northwest were already down 32% year over year.

For North American buyers, this sets up a winter and spring import window where Chilean volume is the dominant story. The surge in global supply — particularly from Chile and Turkey — could create pricing pressure in export markets, which may eventually benefit import buyers. Worth watching how Chilean cherry prices evolve as the season ramps up and whether the volume increase translates to better FOB deals.

New research from 210 Analytics shows 18.1% of U.S. consumers are currently using GLP-1 medications, with another 11% planning to start within six months. While users eat less overall — 63% report consuming less food, 60% have reduced portions, and 61% eat fewer snacks — produce is one of the clear winners. Among users intentionally eating more of certain foods, 49% are increasing fresh vegetables and 46% fresh fruit.

Specific categories are seeing strong tailwinds. Among GLP-1 users boosting fresh fruit, 62% are eating more apples, 60% more blueberries, and 59% each more strawberries and bananas. Broccoli leads on the vegetable side. GLP-1 users are also more likely to eat fresh produce four to five days per week than non-users. The medications are predominantly used for weight management, with 43% citing weight loss as the primary reason.

This is a significant demand signal for produce buyers and category managers. As GLP-1 adoption continues to grow — Groceryshop keynote speakers called it a lifelong treatment, not a trend — fresh produce departments are positioned to capture a larger share of a shrinking overall food basket. Highlighting fiber content, protein pairing opportunities, and nutrient density is worth monitoring as a retail merchandising angle.

A Florida man has filed a wrongful death lawsuit against Publix Super Markets and distributor Quirch Foods, alleging his wife died after consuming GreenWise Organic frozen blueberries that were later recalled due to a multistate E. coli O145:H28 outbreak. The suit also seeks damages for personal injury on behalf of the couple's son, who was allegedly hospitalized. A second lawsuit from another Florida couple was filed in July over the same recall.

The recall originated with Frutas y Hortalizas del Sur S.A. and was later expanded by Publix to cover all lots of GreenWise Organic Whole Blueberries and Whole Mixed Berries. A separate expansion also pulled Great Value frozen Organic Triple Berry Blend from Walmart stores in 26 states and Puerto Rico. The CDC confirmed 17 illnesses and six hospitalizations tied to the outbreak, and noted the outbreak has ended — though the agency did not attribute any deaths among confirmed cases.

This case is worth watching closely because it escalates the legal and reputational stakes around frozen berry food safety well beyond a standard recall situation. Buyers and category managers sourcing frozen or organic berry programs should monitor how liability is assigned across the supply chain — from grower to distributor to retailer — as litigation like this can reshape vendor qualification standards.

Fyffes North America CEO Juan Alarcon is sounding the alarm on a banana supply chain that's holding together — but just barely. Weather volatility across Central and South America, including the shifting effects of El Niño and La Niña, is creating inconsistent production conditions, increasing disease pressure from Black Sigatoka, and adding cost at every step from farm to shelf. At origin, growers are paying more for fertilizer, fumigation, plastics, and inland transportation. In the U.S., limited truck drivers and high fuel costs are making reliable delivery harder.

The core tension is that bananas remain one of retail's most price-sensitive staples, but the cost to produce and deliver them keeps rising. Retail pricing hasn't kept pace with supply chain cost inflation, which Alarcon says is putting the long-term sustainability of the category at risk.

For buyers and category managers, bananas are a category where the value expectation is deeply embedded — and very hard to reset. Watch for increased pressure from suppliers to adjust pricing or contract terms, particularly if weather disruptions in Guatemala, Honduras, Ecuador, or Costa Rica intensify through the El Niño cycle extending into mid-2027.

University of Florida and University of Wyoming researchers have modeled when citrus growers should switch from conventional to HLB-resistant varieties — and the answer isn't straightforward. Their bioeconomic model finds that an 80% resistance efficacy threshold is a critical financial tipping point: only above that level does it make sense for growers to stop chemical spraying before replanting with resistant cultivars. Below 80%, maintaining aggressive insecticide programs remains the better financial move.

The complication is the perennial nature of citrus trees. Unlike annual crops, existing groves can stay productive for years even while diseased, and new plantings take years to reach full yield. That means the financially rational decision is often to delay replanting, even when resistant varieties are available. Grove density, tree age, and the disease status of neighboring operations all affect the math.

For the industry broadly, this research is a reminder that the technical breakthrough and the economic transition are two different timelines. Florida's citrus sector has already hit historic lows in output — the transition to resistant varieties is the clearest long-term path forward, but buyers sourcing Florida citrus should expect a slow, uneven recovery over the coming decade rather than a near-term rebound.

Costa Rica's pineapple industry is entering its most challenging stretch of the El Niño cycle, with the national meteorological institute projecting its effects to extend through June 2027. The Cámara de Piñeros Unidos reports that fresh export volumes have remained similar to 2025 but that a recovery isn't expected — production regions are experiencing either severe rainfall deficits or excessive rain depending on their location, with one key area in Pital recording over 900mm of rain in August alone.

Costs are compounding the weather pressure. Freight rates, imported fertilizers, diesel, and packaging cardboard have all risen due to the geopolitical situation, and port tariffs in Costa Rica are among the most expensive in the region. A roughly 30% appreciation of the Costa Rican colón against the dollar since the start of the year has hit cash flow hard, particularly for small and medium growers. Labor competition from other agricultural sectors and neighboring countries is also straining workforce availability.

Costa Rica is the dominant supplier of fresh pineapples to the U.S. market, and buyers should factor in potential volume tightness and elevated pricing through the first half of 2027. The grower association noted it is confident the current U.S. tariff exemption policy will continue, but the combination of weather, currency, and logistics headwinds makes this a category worth watching closely for supply disruptions.