Global fresh cherry production is forecast to hit 5.4 million tons in 2026/27, up 17% and the highest volume on record according to USDA FAS. Turkey is the story of the season — after frost devastated last year's crop, output is projected to nearly triple to 1 million tons. Chile is forecast at 727,000 tons, with exports expected to rise 80,000 tons to 650,000 tons. China's crop is forecast at 1.02 million tons, and its imports are expected to climb 12% to 560,000 tons.
The U.S. is moving in the opposite direction. Domestic cherry output is forecast to fall more than 20%, with Pacific Northwest freeze damage wiping out gains elsewhere. U.S. fresh cherry exports are projected to drop nearly 25% to 62,000 tons, and June–July shipments from the Pacific Northwest were already down 32% year over year.
For North American buyers, this sets up a winter and spring import window where Chilean volume is the dominant story. The surge in global supply — particularly from Chile and Turkey — could create pricing pressure in export markets, which may eventually benefit import buyers. Worth watching how Chilean cherry prices evolve as the season ramps up and whether the volume increase translates to better FOB deals.