Disruptions linked to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are threatening to push fruit and vegetable prices up as much as 30% due to rising fertilizer and energy input costs. The Strait is a critical route for petrochemicals used in fertilizer production, meaning any prolonged conflict ripples directly into farm-level costs. This compounds existing inflationary pressure already hitting buyers and category managers across North America. Watch for price floors to shift on staple commodities over the next planting and harvest cycles if the situation doesn't stabilize.

U.S. lawmakers have introduced a proposal to add a $5-per-unit duty on Mexican onion imports, citing the dramatic rise in domestic production costs — from $1,876 per acre in 1992 to $6,438 in 2025. The move is framed as leveling the playing field against imports that operate under different labor and regulatory standards. If passed, this could significantly disrupt supply for buyers who rely on Mexican onions, particularly during gaps in domestic production. Watch how industry groups and import-heavy distributors respond, and start assessing your sourcing exposure now.

Fresh vegetable prices in Canada surged 7.8% in March, the largest increase in almost three years, according to Statistics Canada. The spike contributed to Canada's overall inflation rate climbing to 2.4% — up from 1.8% in February — with fuel costs acting as a key accelerant. For buyers and category managers sourcing into or within Canada, this signals tightening margin conditions and potential consumer pushback on retail pricing. Keep an eye on whether domestic spring supply can help ease pressure, or if prices stay elevated through Q2.

Ongoing minor rains in California are squeezing strawberry supply and creating quality inconsistencies, particularly on ranches with heavier soils. With virtually all North American strawberries currently coming out of California, there's little backup sourcing to absorb the disruption. Growers are optimistic the weather will stabilize, but short-term availability is constrained. Buyers should expect tighter supply and potential price movement until conditions improve and harvest volumes normalize.

Private label has historically lagged in produce compared to center store, but retailers are increasingly embracing it as a margin and loyalty tool. The shift is being driven by rising commodity costs, consumer price sensitivity, and improving packaging and branding capabilities. For category managers, this represents both an opportunity to differentiate and a pressure point as supplier brand visibility competes with store brands. Watch how major retailers accelerate or restructure their private label produce programs heading into the back half of 2026.