Mexico's 2026 tomato production is forecast at 2.6 million metric tons, down 9% from 2025, according to USDA data. The decline is being driven by the continued imposition of a 17% antidumping duty on Mexican tomatoes entering the U.S., which has squeezed producer margins and pushed growers to reduce planted acreage. Weather conditions have added further pressure on top of the trade-related cutbacks.

This is a significant structural shift, not just a seasonal blip. Mexico has historically been the dominant supplier of fresh tomatoes to the U.S. market, and a 9% production drop tied to a tariff regime means the supply reduction isn't going away when the weather improves. With domestic Florida production winding down and this volume gap opening on the Mexican side, buyers who rely on consistent tomato supply year-round are navigating a fundamentally tighter pipeline.

Watch for upward pricing pressure to persist or even intensify through the summer months as the acreage reduction works its way through the supply chain. Category managers should be monitoring alternative sourcing options and keeping a close eye on any updates to the antidumping duty framework, which remains an active flashpoint between the U.S. and Mexico.

Mexico's new avocado season is advancing positively, with prices rebounding after a period of lows. Manuel Cerda Morales, president of Apeamex, reports that fruit is now selling at 45 pesos per kilogram for trees, reflecting a meaningful market recovery. Industry participants are expressing optimism heading into the new season, with the FIFA World Cup — being hosted across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico starting June 11 — expected to generate a significant demand boost.

This marks a distinct new development from the force majeure situation that defined recent avocado coverage: the new season is beginning, prices have recovered from their lows, and a major demand catalyst is now entering the picture. The World Cup has historically been one of the strongest demand events for avocados given guacamole consumption, and with the tournament hosted in North America this year, that demand surge is especially relevant to U.S. retail and foodservice buyers.

Category managers should be watching how quickly new-season Mexican volume scales up relative to demand, and whether the World Cup demand spike creates any short-term supply pressure during the group stage weeks in June and July.

Despite positive fresh produce sales trends, Circana analysts are warning that the industry is losing returning shoppers, with consumers increasingly prioritizing value when making purchase decisions. The data suggests that while top-line numbers look healthy, the underlying shopper base is under pressure, creating a risk of volume erosion that isn't yet visible in aggregate sales figures.

This tension — strong sales on paper but eroding shopper loyalty — is one of the more nuanced challenges facing category managers right now. With inflation still a factor in fresh produce pricing and organic premiums at record levels, value-conscious consumers are making harder tradeoffs. Losing returning shoppers is a leading indicator of category weakness: it tends to show up in basket size and trip frequency before it hits total sales numbers.

For buyers and category managers, this is worth monitoring as a signal to think carefully about promotional strategy, price-point assortment, and value tier offerings heading into the second half of the year. How retailers communicate value in the produce section — through pack sizing, private label, or promotional frequency — may matter more than it has in recent years.

Orchard View is targeting 1.2 million boxes of premium cherries for the current Northwest cherry season and is expressing confidence in a strong sales run heading into the Fourth of July. The company is positioning its crop as early, high-quality, and well-timed for the peak summer holiday demand window.

This is meaningful context given the broader cherry supply picture this year. California's cherry season has been severely impacted, and Northwest cherries are now carrying more weight than usual in filling the supply gap for retailers and consumers. An early, volume-strong Northwest crop from a major grower is genuinely good news for buyers trying to rebuild cherry programs after a difficult spring.

Category managers building July 4th promotions around cherries should find the supply picture more workable than the California situation suggested. Worth monitoring how the overall Northwest season develops across multiple shippers, as weather and sizing conditions will ultimately determine whether the optimism holds through the holiday.

The U.S. onion market is moving through its seasonal transition, with supplies shifting from California's Imperial Valley to Northern California and New Mexico. Imperial Valley shipments are expected to continue for only a short window, with some operations already complete, as the growing season there comes to a close. Northern California and New Mexico are now stepping in as the primary supply sources.

This is a routine but operationally important transition that buyers need to track. Disruptions or delays in the handoff between growing regions can create short supply windows with price spikes, particularly for yellow onion programs. While the transition itself is expected, conditions in the incoming regions — weather, crop size, quality — will determine how smoothly supplies bridge over the coming weeks.

This story arrives as a fresh supply-side update distinct from the previously covered New Mexico onion harvest initiation story. Watch for any reports of volume shortfalls or quality issues from Northern California or New Mexico as the new shipments ramp up through June.

Nearly 160 agricultural and food sector organizations across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico have sent a joint letter to their governments urging renewal and strengthening of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement ahead of the treaty's first joint review on July 1, 2026. The coalition represents a broad cross-section of the food supply chain and is calling for the tripartite relationship to remain intact and functional for cross-border trade.

USMCA underpins the flow of virtually every major fresh commodity moving between the three countries — from Mexican avocados, tomatoes, limes, and peppers to Canadian greenhouse vegetables and U.S. apple and potato exports. With the review date just weeks away, uncertainty about the agreement's future scope is already prompting supply chain teams to think more carefully about contingency sourcing and inventory positioning.

This is a different angle than previously covered USMCA stories — rather than a single commodity or industry group lobbying, this is a broad, unified cross-sector push that signals how seriously the entire ag food chain is taking the July 1 deadline. Worth monitoring closely as the review date approaches for any signals about specific commodity provisions that could shift.

The House Agriculture Committee chair is proposing reforms to the H-2A guest worker program, which is the primary federal mechanism through which fruit and vegetable growers access seasonal agricultural labor. While specific details of the proposed changes are not fully elaborated in the brief, any reforms to H-2A carry significant implications for labor availability, wage rates, and administrative burden across the fresh produce supply chain.

H-2A is the backbone of seasonal harvest labor for most major commodity growing regions in the U.S., from California's Central Valley and Salinas Valley to Florida, Washington State, and beyond. Changes to the program — whether in wage calculation methods, application processing, housing requirements, or worker eligibility rules — directly affect grower cost structures, which flow through to FOB pricing and ultimately retail shelf costs. The produce industry has long advocated for H-2A modernization, though specific reform proposals have historically been contentious.

This is worth tracking closely as the proposal advances through committee. The direction of the reforms — whether they reduce costs and complexity for growers or add new requirements — will determine whether this is good news or bad news for supply-side stability.