Mexico's 2026 tomato production is forecast at 2.6 million metric tons, down 9% from 2025, according to USDA data. The decline is being driven by the continued imposition of a 17% antidumping duty on Mexican tomatoes entering the U.S., which has squeezed producer margins and pushed growers to reduce planted acreage. Weather conditions have added further pressure on top of the trade-related cutbacks.
This is a significant structural shift, not just a seasonal blip. Mexico has historically been the dominant supplier of fresh tomatoes to the U.S. market, and a 9% production drop tied to a tariff regime means the supply reduction isn't going away when the weather improves. With domestic Florida production winding down and this volume gap opening on the Mexican side, buyers who rely on consistent tomato supply year-round are navigating a fundamentally tighter pipeline.
Watch for upward pricing pressure to persist or even intensify through the summer months as the acreage reduction works its way through the supply chain. Category managers should be monitoring alternative sourcing options and keeping a close eye on any updates to the antidumping duty framework, which remains an active flashpoint between the U.S. and Mexico.