California's avocado crop came in on track with the 330 million-pound forecast, according to California Avocado Commission President Ken Melban. Fruit sizing was described as good and quality as outstanding throughout the spring and summer marketing window. Early-year rainfall across growing regions supported tree health and fruit development, giving the state a favorable foundation for the season. Shipments started slower than expected before accelerating in May and June.

The CAC significantly ramped up its retail execution strategy this season, rolling out customized branded programs with individual retail partners — including California-origin displays, digital and social advertising, coupons, demonstrations, and influencer activations. The push was designed to help California fruit stand out at a time when Mexican and South American avocados are competing for the same retail shelf space. Melban also emphasized that California avocados can move from grove to grocer in just days, a freshness story the CAC is actively marketing.

For category managers, this season illustrates how origin differentiation is becoming a more active retail strategy for California versus Mexico supply. The ongoing labor certification requirements that Mexico's exporters must now meet — covered in a recent issue — could affect the competitive dynamics heading into fall, making California origin messaging worth monitoring as the state's season winds down.

Rainfall arriving at the start of Chile's spring season is raising serious concerns about crop quality and yield across the country's major fruit-growing regions. An agroclimatologist at the University of Talca warned that the combination of precipitation, wind, and subsequent warmth can damage flowering, cause fruit drop, and compromise fruit physiology — the exact conditions now hitting central-southern Chile. For cherries specifically, the risk is fruit cracking caused by humidity in October and November followed by warm days, which would disqualify significant portions of fruit from international markets with strict quality standards.

Apple trees and vineyards face elevated risk of Botrytis and Venturia fungal diseases under the forecast humid and warm conditions, increasing production costs. The weather system is being amplified by a strong El Niño event, which forecasters say will drive greater weather variability — including intense rainfall over short periods — throughout the spring season. The Maule Region is expected to receive 20 to 25 millimeters of rain in the coming week, with warm atmospheric rivers elevating the snowmelt risk.

Given Chile's role as the world's leading cherry exporter and a major supplier of grapes and apples to North America, buyers with Chilean programs should be monitoring weather developments closely over the next 6 to 8 weeks. Quality and volume commitments for Chilean cherries arriving in the U.S. and Canada later in the season could face pressure if spring conditions worsen.

British Columbia's Okanagan Valley is in the middle of an early apple harvest, with most varieties running 7 to 10 days ahead of schedule and delivering strong sizing, good color, and improved storage quality compared to last year. Global Fruit is in its second season of an expanded apple program built around a new packing facility commissioned in late 2025, and volume is expected to more than double — from roughly 10,000 bins in year one to over 18,000 bins this season. New growers joining the program and a new Pink Lady licensed brand partnership are adding to the growth story.

The more significant market signal here is on the demand side. About 95% of Global Fruit's apple volume stays within Canada, and retailers are currently asking for more BC apples than are available. That demand surge is being explicitly driven by Canada-U.S. trade tensions, with Canadian retailers and consumers actively seeking domestic alternatives to U.S.-grown fruit. The company's "I Love Canadian" branding has benefited directly from the shift.

For U.S. apple shippers with Canadian retail programs, this is a trend worth watching closely. If Canadian-origin preference holds through the fall and into the storage season, it could affect U.S. export volumes and pricing on lanes that traditionally flow north. BC apple acreage has been declining for years, meaning supply can't easily scale to match the new level of demand.

Texas citrus growers are entering harvest season with a meaningfully larger crop than last year, with Texas Citrus Mutual President Dale Murden projecting output up roughly 15% to more than 5 million fresh cartons. The increase is largely driven by younger trees coming into production. About 70% of Texas citrus is grapefruit and the remainder is oranges, with orange harvest expected to begin in early October and grapefruit following in mid-to-late October. The season typically runs through the end of May.

Quality is described as exceptional, with particularly strong Brix levels on grapefruit. The one challenge is fruit sizing, which has been affected by drought and extreme summer heat, though Murden is optimistic that cooler and wetter fall weather will help size develop. Pricing is expected to hold near last year's levels or trend slightly higher. Murden noted that demand strength will also depend on the timing and volume of competing imports.

For buyers building Texas grapefruit and orange programs, the 15% volume increase provides more room to work with than last season, and quality signals are positive. The sizing uncertainty is worth flagging in early purchasing conversations, as sizing affects both pack configuration and retail pricing strategies.

The ProduceIQ Index came in at $1.28 per pound for Week 39, down slightly week over week, but the calm headline number masks a chaotic underlying market. Iceberg lettuce prices surged 30% in a single week to a 10-year high, driven by disease and insect pressure in California's growing regions, with tight supply expected to linger through early October. Asparagus extended its record price streak to 12 consecutive weeks, with Peruvian supply extremely low and Hurricane Polo threatening to delay production in Baja California Sur.

Grape-type tomatoes are already sitting at a 10-year high, and Polo's landfall — bringing 4 to 12 inches of rain across Baja California and Sonora — is expected to push prices even higher in the coming weeks. Strawberries offered the one bright spot, with prices falling 28% week over week as California's late-season supply surge kicked in, though ProduceIQ notes that relief will likely be short-lived.

With multiple commodities simultaneously at or near record pricing levels, buyers across leafy greens, asparagus, and tomatoes should be watching for continued volatility through at least mid-October. Suppliers are already forecasting limited asparagus volume and elevated prices through November.

Peru exported 122,833 tons of fresh blueberries through week 37 of the 2026/27 season, up 28% from the same period a year earlier, according to Proarándanos. The biggest single-country recipient of that growth is the United States, where shipments increased 50% to 56,251 tons. China, by contrast, received 16% less than the prior year at 15,838 tons, while Taiwan saw a dramatic 304% increase off a small base. Exporters are actively diversifying their Asian market mix based on variety, fruit size, logistics, and arrival conditions.

The volume surge into the U.S. is notable against the backdrop of recently covered forecasts that had trimmed Peruvian blueberry expectations due to El Niño impacts. Early-season data suggests the crop is outperforming those downward revisions, at least through week 37. High-caliber varieties like Sekoya Pop in Jumbo 20+ sizing are commanding strong opening prices in China, with an early July shipment reportedly selling out within an hour at roughly $32 per 1.5-kilo tray.

For U.S. blueberry buyers, the 50% year-over-year increase in Peruvian arrivals is a meaningful supply-side development that could put downward pressure on domestic blueberry pricing during peak Peruvian import windows. Worth monitoring how the remaining season progresses and whether El Niño-related disruptions affect the back half of Peru's export calendar.