Florida's 2026 orange harvest is projected at just 12.9 million boxes, down catastrophically from roughly 200 million boxes two decades ago — a 95% collapse driven primarily by citrus greening disease. In 2021/22, the state was still filling 41.2 million boxes, meaning even recent history looks unrecognizable compared to today.

Two emerging technologies are in play: CRISPR gene-edited trees approved by the EPA in April, and a virus-injection method that supports disease resistance. Florida has committed $330 million over two years to subsidize resistant tree purchases, but growers need another two years post-planting before those trees bear fruit. In the meantime, California has overtaken Florida as the leading orange-producing state, with Brazil also filling the gap.

Watch for downstream pricing pressure on fresh Florida oranges and continued tightening of orange juice supplies — OJ futures on ICE are already down more than 40% over the past year, reflecting a market resetting around structural scarcity, not a seasonal dip.

USDA's weekly retail ad report shows total produce ad counts at 306,807 for the week, down 3% from the prior week but 6% above the same period last year — a signal that fall promotional activity is building. Pumpkins, hard squash, apples, and pears are taking center stage, while summer staples like cantaloupes, peaches, and grapes are still holding flyer space in warmer markets. Rosh Hashana and Hispanic Heritage Month drove specialty promotions across honey, apples, beets, tomatillos, jalapeños, and Roma tomatoes.

On pricing, the standout movement is avocados — advertised prices are down 15% versus the same week last year, reflecting the transition into Mexico's new regular-crop season with strong supply. Cantaloupe advertised prices are up 14%, consistent with recent tightening in the melon category. Broccoli crowns jumped 20% and cremini mushrooms 13%, while red bell peppers fell 14%.

For category managers building fall sets, the avocado price pullback creates a strong promotional window heading into the fourth quarter. The broccoli and mushroom spikes are worth monitoring given their prominence in fall and holiday meal planning across retail and foodservice.

DAT's weekly freight report for September 13–19 shows reefer spot rates at $3.59 per mile, up 9 cents from the prior week, with the load-to-truck ratio climbing to 19.1 — tighter than the week before. Fall produce is cited explicitly as a driver of increased reefer load volumes, which were up 8% week-over-week. Diesel hit $6.285 a gallon for the week ending September 14, the first EIA weekly reading above $6 in the agency's records going back to 2007.

The fuel surcharge used in freight rate calculations lags the actual diesel price by about a week by design, meaning the full cost impact of this diesel spike hasn't yet shown up in all-in reefer rates — but it will. Van and flatbed linehaul rates actually dipped slightly on the week, but diesel more than offset those moves, pushing all-in rates higher across all equipment types.

Buyers managing fall volume into retail should factor in tightening reefer capacity alongside rising fuel costs. Carriers and brokers will be pricing accordingly, and shippers with flexible timing or consolidated loads may have an advantage in negotiating freight costs over the next several weeks.

Governor Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency in California to prepare for a strengthening El Niño event, with federal forecasters placing the odds of a very strong event above 90% and a 75% chance it could reach historic strength. The proclamation mobilizes state resources, streamlines procurement, and directs agencies to prepare flood-control infrastructure, stage supplies, and support local authorities across flood-, landslide-, and coastal-risk zones.

For California agriculture — which supplies a significant share of North America's leafy greens, citrus, grapes, strawberries, and other major commodities — the potential for heavy rain, flooding, high winds, and infrastructure disruption during fall and winter is a material supply chain concern. Flooded or damaged roads could affect transport in and out of major growing regions including Salinas Valley, Oxnard/Ventura, and the Central Valley.

El Niño doesn't guarantee a wet winter, but the declared emergency signals that state officials are treating this as a serious risk. Category managers and buyers with winter sourcing programs tied to California should monitor weather forecasts closely and assess contingency sourcing options heading into Q4.

Mexico's Chihuahua state — which accounts for 85.7% of the country's apple volume — is expecting its harvest to jump more than 30% this season, reaching roughly 25 million boxes versus 18 million in 2025. National harvest data through August 2026 already shows 433,235 tons, tracking well ahead of pace. Chihuahua alone has approximately 35,000 hectares planted, and growing conditions supported the strong crop.

Running alongside the production story is a significant trade dispute: Mexico's Ministry of Economy launched an antidumping investigation into U.S. apple imports in January 2026, covering the April 2024–March 2025 period. U.S. apples account for 97.5% of Mexico's apple imports. A resolution is expected in October.

If Mexico imposes antidumping duties, it could close off a major export channel for U.S. growers — particularly Gala, Fuji, Honeycrisp, and Pink Lady — at a time when domestic U.S. apple supply is already tightening in some regions. Worth watching closely as both the harvest and the trade ruling develop simultaneously.

Wegmans Food Markets announced a $110 million investment in its supply chain network, centered on a new state-of-the-art refrigerated facility in Rochester, New York that will handle fresh produce, meat, seafood, deli, and restaurant foods. The company will also consolidate its oldest leased distribution center, moving general merchandise operations to its Pottsville, Pennsylvania facility by spring 2027. No layoffs are planned.

The investment is explicitly aimed at reducing reliance on third-party providers and building long-term capacity to serve the 114-store East Coast chain. Wegmans is a premium regional grocer with significant produce volume and a strong reputation for category quality — decisions it makes about supply chain structure can influence how other regional retailers think about their own infrastructure.

For produce suppliers and distributors working with Wegmans, the consolidation of perishables into a single new facility could change how orders are routed, received, and managed over the next 12–24 months. Worth staying close to Wegmans' buying and logistics teams as construction timelines are finalized.