Florida's 2026 orange harvest is projected at just 12.9 million boxes, down catastrophically from roughly 200 million boxes two decades ago — a 95% collapse driven primarily by citrus greening disease. In 2021/22, the state was still filling 41.2 million boxes, meaning even recent history looks unrecognizable compared to today.
Two emerging technologies are in play: CRISPR gene-edited trees approved by the EPA in April, and a virus-injection method that supports disease resistance. Florida has committed $330 million over two years to subsidize resistant tree purchases, but growers need another two years post-planting before those trees bear fruit. In the meantime, California has overtaken Florida as the leading orange-producing state, with Brazil also filling the gap.
Watch for downstream pricing pressure on fresh Florida oranges and continued tightening of orange juice supplies — OJ futures on ICE are already down more than 40% over the past year, reflecting a market resetting around structural scarcity, not a seasonal dip.