North American tomato supply is fragmented right now, with domestic regions either between crops or wrapping up, and Mexico running tighter than usual due to heat and rain. Michigan, the Carolinas, Canada — all light. The result is average-to-thin availability across the board, and prices running well above historical norms for this time of year.

According to Blue Creek Produce, the industry hasn't seen sustained pricing like this in a long time. Diesel fuel costs are up 60% year-over-year, adding pressure on top of the supply tightness. Demand is currently moderate — retailers are shifting floor space toward fall items like apples — but it's expected to pick up toward the end of September and into October as local crops finish out.

Florida production is the next meaningful supply reset, and that's weather-dependent and not expected until November. Watch for pricing to hold firm or move higher before then, particularly if quality issues emerge in remaining active regions.

Florida's commercial citrus acreage dropped nearly 21% in a single year, landing at 66,919 hectares across 23 counties for the 2026–2027 season. To put that in perspective: the state had 251,461 hectares in production just 20 years ago — a 73% decline. Polk County took the biggest hit, losing 4,429 hectares, though it remains the state's top citrus county.

The culprits are familiar — hurricanes, freezes, citrus greening disease, shifting consumption habits, and relentless development pressure. Major growers like Alico are winding down operations entirely and pivoting to land sales and development. The USDA's first official production forecast for the new season won't drop until October.

For buyers sourcing Florida oranges, grapefruit, or specialty citrus, the math keeps getting tighter every season. Worth watching whether October's USDA forecast signals further volume compression — and whether the state's $160 million citrus research budget starts to move the needle on greening.

The produce transportation market isn't in crisis mode, but it's under real strain. Higher costs, tighter capacity, and ongoing border complications are creating a more challenging logistics environment for shippers and buyers across North America. The pressures aren't isolated — they're hitting simultaneously and compounding each other.

This comes on top of an already difficult freight backdrop. Reefer spot rates recently touched $3.54 per mile heading into Labor Day, and border crossing complications have been a persistent theme this season, particularly for Mexico-origin volume.

For anyone managing inbound supply chains on high-velocity commodities — tomatoes, avocados, peppers, berries — tighter capacity means less flexibility for last-minute coverage and potentially longer lead times. Worth building more buffer into procurement timelines heading into the fall transition period.

U.S. domestic blueberry production is fading fast — Oregon nearly done, Washington declining — and Peruvian supply is stepping in earlier than usual this year. In week 33 alone, Peru shipped roughly 12,000 metric tons, up from about 8,000 metric tons during the same week last year. That early surge is being driven by earlier-producing varieties and younger fields hitting peak production.

But the story isn't straightforward. El Niño-related heat in key Peruvian growing regions has caused significant flowering losses — roughly 30% in La Libertad and over 31% in parts of Lambayeque — though Ica in the south has fared much better at around 7% loss. The concern is that a strong early surge could be followed by a softer mid-season and a compressed late-season window, particularly in December and January.

For category managers buying into the fall, the early volume is there now — but watch for supply to become uneven rather than consistently strong. Quality factors including firmness, bloom, and shelf life are worth monitoring closely as warm conditions persist.

Camposol, one of Peru's largest agricultural exporters, started its table grape harvest in Piura last week — roughly one month ahead of the region's typical window and nearly two months earlier than the company's own 2025 start date. The decision was explicitly tied to El Niño climate risk, with CEO Ricardo Naranjo framing it as a proactive move to get fruit off the vine before heat and weather volatility could affect quality and yield.

Camposol has 561 hectares of table grapes under cultivation and harvested over 21,000 tons in 2025. Moving harvest timing this aggressively is a significant operational decision and reflects growing concern in Peru's agricultural sector about the unpredictability of El Niño impacts on crop timing and quality.

For U.S. buyers sourcing Peruvian table grapes for the late fall and holiday window, earlier harvests could affect the availability and timing of expected supply. Worth monitoring whether other major Peruvian grape producers follow Camposol's lead and what that means for overall season length and volume spread.

Colorado's House Bill 26-1031 took effect in mid-August, making it illegal to sell out-of-state produce as locally grown Colorado fruit or vegetables. The law was driven by documented cases of peaches from Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and California being sold under canopy tents as Palisade-grown Colorado peaches — sometimes as early as May, months before local peaches are even ready. Violators face fines of up to $20,000.

The bill had bipartisan support and was championed by both Republican and Democratic legislators. It's designed to protect the state's "Colorado Proud" brand, which covers high-profile regional specialties including Palisade peaches, Pueblo chile peppers, Rocky Ford melons, and San Luis Valley potatoes. Small growers who depend on that regional brand reputation stand to benefit most.

For produce buyers and category managers sourcing locally branded product in Colorado, this law adds a compliance layer worth understanding — particularly for any programs that co-mingle out-of-state and in-state volume under local or regional branding.