U.S. domestic blueberry production is fading fast — Oregon nearly done, Washington declining — and Peruvian supply is stepping in earlier than usual this year. In week 33 alone, Peru shipped roughly 12,000 metric tons, up from about 8,000 metric tons during the same week last year. That early surge is being driven by earlier-producing varieties and younger fields hitting peak production.
But the story isn't straightforward. El Niño-related heat in key Peruvian growing regions has caused significant flowering losses — roughly 30% in La Libertad and over 31% in parts of Lambayeque — though Ica in the south has fared much better at around 7% loss. The concern is that a strong early surge could be followed by a softer mid-season and a compressed late-season window, particularly in December and January.
For category managers buying into the fall, the early volume is there now — but watch for supply to become uneven rather than consistently strong. Quality factors including firmness, bloom, and shelf life are worth monitoring closely as warm conditions persist.