Farm diesel prices surged from $3.01 per gallon in September 2025 to $5.61 per gallon in September 2026 — an $2.60-per-gallon increase that is now hitting specialty crop growers hard at the worst possible time. A Farm Bureau analysis estimates the increase adds $142.31 per hectare to apple harvest costs, $45.05 for potatoes, and $46.13 for almonds. Corn and soybean growers face smaller but still meaningful increases.

The pain isn't just direct — higher diesel also ripples into rail fuel surcharges, barge costs, and trucking fees for everything from inputs to finished product. Multiple states have temporarily relaxed restrictions on agricultural use of dyed diesel on public roads to provide some relief, but federal excise tax rules remain unchanged.

This lands on top of an already compressed apple season with forecasts down 7% nationally and frost damage cutting East Coast yields. Category managers building fall apple programs should expect grower-level cost pressure to show up in pricing discussions — particularly for smaller operations without hedging capacity.

Sweet corn supply is transitioning from northeastern growing regions into Georgia and Texas, and pricing is strengthening as the lower-cost northern supply winds down. Demand is steady to slightly above last year, and overall availability looks similar to this time in 2025. Georgia's start has been solid, though extreme heat in recent weeks caused some quality issues on fruit further south in the state — conditions are reportedly improving.

Looking further ahead, growers in the South are monitoring El Niño, which is forecast to bring above-normal rainfall this winter. In Florida specifically, last season's freeze affected nearly all growers, and the industry is watching to see how much corn acreage gets planted for the winter season — and whether those volumes come in above or below normal.

For buyers planning winter corn programs, Florida planting decisions over the next few weeks will be a key signal. A wait-and-see posture from Florida growers could mean tighter supply and higher prices in January and February.

Effective October 1, Mexico's environmental ministry Semarnat has banned exports of avocados grown on deforested land, targeting Michoacán and Jalisco — the heart of the country's avocado industry. The new environmental certificate works alongside the recently introduced labor certificate (CLA), creating a two-document compliance requirement for exporters. Certificates are initially valid for one month and must be renewed every two months.

The move comes against a backdrop of serious enforcement pressure: the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime estimates 80% of Michoacán orchards were established illegally, and last August a cartel leader's arrest prompted threats against avocado business owners that caused U.S. inspectors to temporarily suspend operations. More than a thousand environmental complaints were documented in the state in 2025 alone.

This is a significant escalation beyond the CLA labor certificate story previously covered. Buyers sourcing from Michoacán and Jalisco should watch for supply disruptions as exporters scramble to obtain dual certification — and monitor whether enforcement tightens further as the phased rollout continues.

Santa Cruz County's strawberry crop hit $279 million in 2025, up 27% from $218 million the year before — driven by expanded acreage, higher yields per acre, and better pricing. Crucially, the season extended into early November with no major flooding or heat events, meaning supply came to market in a steady stream rather than a flood that could have cratered prices.

Not all berries shared in the good news: raspberry value dropped from $124 million to $104 million in the same period. Blackberries gained slightly. Combined, the three berry crops generated nearly $500 million, accounting for 64% of the county's total crop value. Vegetable crops were down 15.8% overall, with iceberg, romaine, and leaf lettuce all declining — partially offset by gains in broccoli and Brussels sprouts.

For buyers building berry programs, the 2025 Santa Cruz strawberry data offers a useful baseline heading into discussions about 2026 season performance. The extended harvest window and stable pricing suggest strong grower confidence in the category — worth watching whether California Giant's recently announced multi-region expansion adds further supply depth in the year ahead.

Mexican lime supply is running abundant right now, with both the old crop and new crop available simultaneously — a combination that's producing good size variety across the board. The downside: quality remains inconsistent, with rain, heat, and humidity driving oil spotting and skin breakdown across portions of the supply.

Summer demand for limes has faded, and cooler fall temperatures in the U.S. aren't doing much to lift consumption. The combination of heavy supply, soft demand, and uneven quality is pushing prices into the low $30s, according to International Citrus and Produce's Tony Campos.

Note that recently sent newsletters covered tight lime supply and stronger pricing earlier in the season — this represents a clear reversal of that trend. Watch for whether improving new-crop quality in the coming weeks helps stabilize the market, or whether continued softness pressures grower returns further heading into winter.

Costco has displaced H-E-B as the top-ranked retailer in ChangeUp's 2026 Experience Report, which surveyed more than 6,500 consumers across 300+ brands. The report cited meaningful improvement in Costco's scores for Advocacy and Novelty, while also noting that recent changes have made the trip faster at entry and checkout without sacrificing the browsing experience shoppers enjoy. H-E-B's score was roughly flat year over year.

Other grocers in the top 10 included Sam's Club at seventh, Wegmans at eighth, and Publix at tenth. Trader Joe's landed at fifteenth. The broader finding: consumers are taking fewer shopping trips but arriving with higher expectations for each one — putting pressure on retailers to offer something distinctive.

For produce teams, Costco's ascent is directly relevant — the club channel continues to be a major volume driver for bulk and value-pack produce formats. Retailers looking to compete should watch how Costco is evolving its fresh department experience, as the score gains appear tied to operational improvements rather than just assortment.

El Niño Costero conditions have pushed the start of Peru's Piura grape harvest forward by 10 to 15 days compared to the original forecast, with picking beginning in week 38. Quality is described as good overall, though sizing is running slightly below typical levels due to the growing conditions. White seedless varieties including SugarCrisp, Sweet Globe, and Autumn Crisp are first to market, followed by red and black seedless.

First volumes are expected to reach the UK and Europe in weeks 42 and 43, with larger commercial volumes arriving in November. Importantly, importer Fruit Growers Alianza says the early start means an early end is commercially reasonable — the season may wrap approximately two weeks ahead of the usual schedule.

For U.S. buyers, Peru is a key Southern Hemisphere grape origin that helps bridge the gap as California's domestic season closes. An early-closing Peruvian season could create a supply gap before Chilean volumes build to full strength — worth factoring into Q1 program planning given Chile's own weather challenges this spring.