Idaho is on track to produce its smallest potato crop since 2011, hammered by back-to-back late frosts in May and sustained summer heat in July and August. Two freezes hit emerging plants — the first dropping to 23 degrees — and growers who escaped the first frost were caught by the second. Summer heat made it nearly impossible to bulk up and size the crop, and water curtailment added additional stress.

Acreage is also down: Idaho growers planted an estimated 298,915 acres this year, compared to 315,000 last year — the fourth-fewest planted acres in the last 70 years. Poor pricing in 2025 was the primary driver of that pullback. While quality is actually good on the smaller-sized profile coming out of the ground, overall volume is significantly short.

Pricing is already at its highest level since summer 2023, and one grower says that strength may not let up. Watch for tightening supply to become a real issue by spring, when stored crop typically carries orders through summer — that pipeline looks materially smaller this year.

Mexico's berry exports totaled $2.03 billion in the first half of 2026, down 12.7% from $2.33 billion in the same period last year — a drop of roughly $296 million. Strawberries drove most of the loss, falling 29.8% to $523.1 million. Raspberries and blackberries declined 12% to $994.5 million. The declines were concentrated geographically: Jalisco accounted for about 77.5% of raspberry and blackberry export value in Q2, with Jalisco and Michoacán together representing 97.6%.

Blueberries were the only bright spot, rising 13.7% to $516.4 million. The overall slowdown accelerated as the year progressed — combined berry exports fell to $258.3 million in May and just $107 million in June, with June down 34.2% year over year. The U.S. remains the dominant destination for Mexican berries.

For U.S. buyers, this points to a tighter Mexican strawberry supply environment heading into the back half of the year. The continued growth of Mexican blueberries is also worth tracking as that origin claims a larger share of the U.S. market and shifts the overall composition of Mexico's berry export profile.

Instacart reports that user searches for "fiber" on its platform jumped 26.4% year over year, while searches for "protein" rose nearly 13% in the same period. The company attributes the trend largely to the expansion of GLP-1 medications, which have pushed both nutrients to the center of the national food conversation. Eight of the top 10 fastest-growing categories on Instacart over the past year are protein- or fiber-rich foods.

In produce, sweet potatoes led fiber-driven growth with a 28% share gain since 2025. Hass avocados posted a 6% share gain, yams jumped 20%, and red raspberries, Bartlett pears, and D'Anjou pears also made the list. Frozen broccoli and edamame are picking up as well. Florida ranks first nationally for sales from high-fiber categories and second for high-protein categories on the platform.

For category managers, this data points to a concrete merchandising opportunity around produce items that carry a high-fiber positioning — especially as shoppers increasingly search by nutrient rather than by item name. Worth considering how produce signage, digital shelf content, and promotional strategy can lean into fiber and protein messaging heading into 2027 planning.

Mission Produce reported $450 million in revenue for Q3 2026, up 26% year over year and 55% from the prior quarter, with the Calavo acquisition and strong Mexican supply driving a 38% jump in avocado volumes. However, per-unit avocado prices fell 9% year over year, compressing margins. Gross margin declined 270 basis points to 10% of revenue. The company posted a net loss of $6.5 million, which includes $25.4 million in pre-tax Calavo acquisition-related costs.

Adjusted EBITDA remained essentially flat at $32.4 million versus $32.6 million last year, and overall gross profit came in at $44.7 million versus $45.1 million in Q3 2025. The company cited solid Marketing & Distribution results and stronger-than-forecast contributions from International Farming. Mission also reported meaningful year-to-date U.S. retail market share growth for its legacy business.

With global avocado supply elevated and per-unit prices under pressure, this report signals that volume is available — but margin capture is getting harder across the category. Worth watching how pricing evolves in Q4 as Chilean volumes hit the market alongside continued Mexican supply.

California's table grape season started two to three weeks ahead of schedule, creating overlap with Mexico and flooding the market with multiple varieties simultaneously. By August, six green and red varieties were competing at the same time, and only the strongest quality stood out — mid-tier fruit got crushed on price. Industry-wide shipments have reached roughly 40 million boxes, with the industry moving about 4 million boxes per week. Yields ran 10-15% higher per acre for many growers, though reduced acreage kept overall volume from being unusually large.

A Cyclospora outbreak added additional headwinds during August, slowing domestic demand at a critical point in the season. Premium fruit — particularly the largest, highest-quality product targeting Asian buyers — held firm throughout. The bottom of the market, meanwhile, was defined by the cheapest available fruit, with little room for anything in between.

As supply becomes more limited heading toward the end of the season, the market outlook is improving. Buyers should watch for tighter availability across mid- and late-season varieties as growers manage harvest pace heading into fall.