The World Meteorological Organization says a strong El Niño event could develop by mid-2026, with global temperature and rainfall patterns expected to shift significantly. Models are pointing to disruptions that historically translate into drought in some key growing regions and flooding in others — with major implications for North American produce supply.

El Niño events have previously caused serious crop stress across California, the Pacific Northwest, Mexico, and key import origins in South America. The simultaneous threat of heavy rainfall in Chile and Peru — already flagged by exporters — combined with potential heat and water stress in domestic growing regions, could create a perfect storm for supply and pricing volatility across multiple categories.

Buyers should start scenario planning now for Q3 and Q4. Categories most exposed include stone fruit, berries, citrus, and winter vegetables. Watch for updated crop forecasts closely as the season develops.

A produce industry veteran is sounding the alarm on bananas, warning that the next 18 to 24 months will be "very difficult" for the sector with significant supply destruction on the horizon. Andy Thomas-Stivalet of Kavidac Produce says operators will be pushed to their limits, with margins under extreme pressure and volume tightening across multiple sourcing regions.

Bananas are one of the highest-volume categories in fresh produce, so any sustained supply disruption has outsized ripple effects across retail and foodservice. This warning comes as the broader banana industry is already grappling with disease pressure, rising input costs, and climate volatility in key growing regions.

Buyers and category managers should start stress-testing their banana programs now. If supply destruction materializes at the scale being projected, expect pricing volatility and potential gaps in availability that could challenge promotional calendars well into 2027.

Robinson Fresh has opened a new 142,600 square-foot produce logistics center in South Texas, located just miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. The facility is specifically designed to expand the company's cross-border capabilities, positioning it to handle higher volumes of Mexican produce moving into the U.S. market.

With Mexican imports accounting for a huge share of North American fresh produce — including tomatoes, peppers, avocados, berries, and cucumbers — having dedicated, high-capacity cross-border infrastructure matters. As the USMCA review adds complexity to sourcing and new certification requirements come into play for Mexican exporters, efficient border logistics becomes even more valuable.

For buyers, this kind of investment signals that major logistics players are doubling down on Mexico as a long-term supply corridor. It could also translate into faster transit times and better cold chain integrity on cross-border shipments as capacity expands.

Albertsons has deployed an AI-powered produce inspection system using computer vision and AI models from Google Cloud, making it one of the first major U.S. grocery chains to bring this technology to scale in its fresh department. The tool evaluates produce quality automatically, flagging issues that might otherwise slip past human inspection.

This is a meaningful shift in how large retailers manage fresh quality control. Automated inspection can reduce shrink, improve consistency on the shelf, and create data trails that help buyers hold suppliers accountable to tighter specs — all without adding labor cost. It also signals that AI is moving fast from back-office analytics into the physical produce supply chain.

For growers, shippers, and distributors supplying Albertsons, this could raise the bar on quality expectations. If AI inspection becomes standard at major retailers, the tolerance for marginal loads will shrink and the pressure to deliver consistent quality will intensify across the board.

The 2026 California almond crop is forecast to come in around 2.7 billion pounds, roughly in line with recent seasons according to Blue Diamond Growers and USDA NASS. While the overall number looks stable, the forecast reflects shrinking bearing acreage and ongoing stress from rising input costs, water restrictions, and weather challenges.

A flat forecast isn't necessarily good news — it means production is holding despite fewer trees in the ground, which points to efficiency gains but also signals that the long-term acreage trend is heading down. Almond supply into retail and snack categories could tighten in future seasons if growers continue to exit.

For buyers sourcing almonds or almond-adjacent products, the near-term supply picture looks manageable, but the structural story is worth monitoring. Any weather event or further water restrictions in the San Joaquin Valley could quickly shift this forecast.

A new report reveals that more shoppers than ever are prepared to defect from traditional supermarkets to low-price retailers, creating a steep challenge for players like Kroger and many regional chains. The research highlights that price-sensitive consumers are actively evaluating cheaper alternatives and not just browsing — they're switching.

For produce teams, this matters because fresh departments are often a primary loyalty driver at traditional grocers. If shoppers migrate to discounters and warehouse clubs, produce volume could shift significantly, changing where and how buyers need to compete on price, quality, and presentation.

The takeaway for category managers: differentiation in fresh has never been more important. Retailers that can't justify their price premium through quality, variety, or experience are at real risk of losing the shopper entirely — not just one trip.

U.S. inflation climbed to 3.8% and has now outpaced wage growth for the first time since 2023, according to new data. Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long put it plainly: "The squeeze is real." Wary consumers are increasingly likely to pull back on discretionary spending as broad price hikes take hold.

For produce, this is a critical signal. Fresh fruits and vegetables are often among the first categories where shoppers trade down or reduce basket size when budgets tighten. Coming on top of fresh produce inflation already running at 6.5% — more than double overall food CPI — the pressure on category performance is compounding fast.

Retailers and buyers need to watch promotional strategy carefully. Value-driven items, private label produce, and smaller pack sizes could see a lift as consumers stretch their dollars. Expect demand signals to shift meaningfully in the weeks ahead.