The World Meteorological Organization says a strong El Niño event could develop by mid-2026, with global temperature and rainfall patterns expected to shift significantly. Models are pointing to disruptions that historically translate into drought in some key growing regions and flooding in others — with major implications for North American produce supply.
El Niño events have previously caused serious crop stress across California, the Pacific Northwest, Mexico, and key import origins in South America. The simultaneous threat of heavy rainfall in Chile and Peru — already flagged by exporters — combined with potential heat and water stress in domestic growing regions, could create a perfect storm for supply and pricing volatility across multiple categories.
Buyers should start scenario planning now for Q3 and Q4. Categories most exposed include stone fruit, berries, citrus, and winter vegetables. Watch for updated crop forecasts closely as the season develops.