The 2026 California almond crop is forecast to come in around 2.7 billion pounds, roughly in line with recent seasons according to Blue Diamond Growers and USDA NASS. While the overall number looks stable, the forecast reflects shrinking bearing acreage and ongoing stress from rising input costs, water restrictions, and weather challenges.
A flat forecast isn't necessarily good news — it means production is holding despite fewer trees in the ground, which points to efficiency gains but also signals that the long-term acreage trend is heading down. Almond supply into retail and snack categories could tighten in future seasons if growers continue to exit.
For buyers sourcing almonds or almond-adjacent products, the near-term supply picture looks manageable, but the structural story is worth monitoring. Any weather event or further water restrictions in the San Joaquin Valley could quickly shift this forecast.