Hurricane Polo made landfall in southwest Mexico and is forecast to approach Baja California early next week as a hurricane. Markon Cooperative's alert names avocados and limes as the primary items to watch early this week, with chiles, cucumbers, squash, and tomatoes potentially impacted later as the storm tracks toward the peninsula.

The concern is cascading disruption: heavy rainfall can trigger flash flooding, mudslides, and road closures across steep terrain and coastal shipping corridors that move a large share of Mexico's fall vegetable supply. Several of these commodities — limes, cucumbers, and tomatoes — are already running tight or transitioning between growing regions.

Watch for loading delays and crossing slowdowns at Baja crossings as early as this weekend. Buyers with open positions on any of these items should check in with their shippers immediately and plan for potential volatility in availability and pricing through next week.

Markon Cooperative's latest field update reports industrywide end-of-season challenges across California's Salinas and Santa Maria Valleys, affecting quality, shelf life, case weights, and yields. The biggest problems are pest pressure in cole crops — broccoli, Brussels sprouts, cabbage, and cauliflower — and plant virus and disease pressure in lettuce, including iceberg, green leaf, romaine, and tender leaf varieties.

Diamondback moth larvae and pupae are nestling under broccoli and cauliflower florets in field-packed commodity items, while late-season diseases are spreading exponentially in the final days of crop growth cycles. Growers are harvesting fields early to cut losses, which is compressing case weights and shrinking yields across the board. Markon says most suppliers will struggle to deliver consistent high-quality row crop items through the rest of the season.

For buyers, this is a short-window situation — order for quick turns, keep the cold chain tight, and don't expect the situation to improve before the transition to fall and desert growing regions. Worth monitoring whether the Hurricane Polo disruption adds additional pressure on already strained supply.

USDA market data shows asparagus prices up significantly this week, with Peruvian imports through South Florida seeing 11-pound cartons of jumbo bunched green asparagus mostly at $60.75–$62.75 amid light supplies and active trading. Mexican cucumber prices also rose at both Texas and Otay Mesa crossings, with medium cartons at Otay climbing to $22.00–$22.95.

Strawberries are moving in the opposite direction. Salinas-Watsonville conventional flats dropped to $8.00–$10.00 as Santa Maria volume increases and some fruit is being diverted to freezers and processors. Mexican avocado movement through Texas is fairly slow, with prices relatively unchanged. Peruvian blueberry imports through Miami, Philadelphia, and New York are expected to increase seasonally, with conventional large flats trading at $42.00–$44.00.

For buyers managing multiple categories, the divergence this week creates opportunities on strawberries while asparagus and cucumbers require closer attention to commitment levels. The blueberry import ramp from Peru is worth watching given already tight supply from that origin this season.

The U.S. mango market is heading into fall with tight supply and elevated prices. Mexico's 2026 crop is projected 13% below last year, while Ecuador — expected to be the key transition supplier — is forecast down approximately 52% year-over-year due to El Niño-related rains. Peru's upcoming November-to-March window is also at risk, with at least a 50% volume reduction projected from similar weather damage.

Brazil is currently the dominant supplier and running about 25% above last season, but market participants note that even with that volume, overall availability remains constrained and prices are staying high. Brazil is also skewing toward smaller 12-count fruit, limiting program flexibility.

The compounding hit on both Ecuador and Peru during overlapping shipping windows is significant for anyone with Q4 commitments. Watch for pricing to remain elevated through at least December, and monitor whether Brazil can extend its season long enough to bridge the gap before Peru volumes come online — later and lighter than usual.

California table grapes are entering a tightening phase, with supply shrinking — particularly on green varieties — and pricing responding accordingly. The entire season ran approximately three weeks early due to heavy July heat, which caused uneven variety sequencing and reduced volume per acre on more delicate types. Current shipping varieties include Autumn King on greens and Scarlet Royals and Allisons on reds.

Demand, which was soft through July and August, is picking up with back-to-school momentum and that tightening supply. Growers typically try to ship through U.S. Thanksgiving, but with the season running so early, maintaining volume into late November will be challenging this year. Sunny Cal Farms says prices are already moving higher and expects that trend to continue through the end of the season.

Buyers who rely on California late-season grapes to bridge into import programs should watch the transition window carefully. If the domestic season ends significantly earlier than normal, there may be a gap before Chilean and other Southern Hemisphere volumes are fully established in the market.

Peru's 2026 Hass avocado season is closing with shipments projected to fall nearly 2% from last year, reversing an initial forecast for 6% growth. The U.S. market took the sharpest hit, with shipments down approximately 36% year-over-year. ProHass general manager Arturo Medina attributed the decline to greater availability of Mexican and California avocados alongside past instances where Peruvian fruit failed to meet U.S. buyer quality expectations.

El Niño created high variability in dry matter levels within specific lots and pushed more small-fruit sizes into the market early, while larger fruit was held on trees longer to hit required maturity benchmarks. Europe absorbed about 67% of Peru's Hass exports and remained the most important market, though Italy emerged as a growth destination with importers shifting to direct container purchasing. Asian markets showed strong growth in South Korea (up 41%) and Thailand (up 76%).

For U.S. buyers, the continued underperformance of Peruvian avocados in this market — compounded by ongoing Mexican supply and the recently wrapped California season — raises questions about whether Peru can rebuild its U.S. presence. Medina's comments about quality and reputation are worth monitoring as the industry enters the next season.