The U.S. mango market is heading into fall with tight supply and elevated prices. Mexico's 2026 crop is projected 13% below last year, while Ecuador — expected to be the key transition supplier — is forecast down approximately 52% year-over-year due to El Niño-related rains. Peru's upcoming November-to-March window is also at risk, with at least a 50% volume reduction projected from similar weather damage.
Brazil is currently the dominant supplier and running about 25% above last season, but market participants note that even with that volume, overall availability remains constrained and prices are staying high. Brazil is also skewing toward smaller 12-count fruit, limiting program flexibility.
The compounding hit on both Ecuador and Peru during overlapping shipping windows is significant for anyone with Q4 commitments. Watch for pricing to remain elevated through at least December, and monitor whether Brazil can extend its season long enough to bridge the gap before Peru volumes come online — later and lighter than usual.