The ProduceIQ Index hit $1.29 per pound for week 38, up 2% over the prior week, as heat and diesel costs continued squeezing the market. Diesel has climbed above $6.50 per gallon, adding pressure across every leg of the supply chain. Iceberg prices surged 29% week-over-week to a 10-year high, with quality below average and sizing trending smaller due to disease and insect pressure in Salinas. Broccoli jumped 18% on intense Diamondback Moth pressure, with Salinas supply well below average.

Limes are up 36% week-over-week on rain-related harvest disruptions in Mexico, though some improvement is forecast within two weeks. Grape-type tomatoes got mild relief — down 6% — but supply remains very tight through at least week 40 due to reduced output from the U.S. Southeast and Mexico. The combination of weather stress, pest pressure, and record fuel costs is stacking up across multiple categories simultaneously.

Buyers in leafy greens and brassicas should watch for continued acceleration in coming weeks as Salinas growers work through ongoing disease and insect challenges. Planning for substitutions and communicating flexibility to customers now is worth doing before the situation tightens further.

The International Fresh Produce Association sent a formal letter to the FDA's acting commissioner on September 16 calling for clearer communication, transparent root cause analysis, and expanded traceability research following this summer's Cyclospora outbreak. The outbreak — linked to Mexican-grown lettuce — sickened more than 12,000 people across 21 states and caused two deaths before FDA declared it over on September 11. IFPA Chief Science Officer Max Teplitski wrote that the repercussions extended well beyond lettuce and leafy greens.

The letter asks FDA to work collaboratively with the industry rather than in isolation, arguing that visible, coordinated action is necessary to restore consumer confidence. IFPA framed the request as an opportunity to demonstrate how industry and regulators can translate lessons learned into practical improvements — including stronger traceability infrastructure across the supply chain.

This follows the cyclospora outbreak being covered in recently sent issues, but this is a concrete new development: a formal industry-to-regulator demand with specific asks around traceability and communication. Worth monitoring how FDA responds, particularly given ongoing congressional and public scrutiny of produce safety protocols heading into the fall retail season.

El Niño-driven rains are expected to cut mango volume from both Ecuador and Peru by at least 50% this season, according to importer Luis Orrantia of Tropical Specialists. Brazil is currently shipping mangoes and has more availability of smaller 12-count fruit, but exporters are rushing volume before Ecuador enters the market — and Ecuador's reduced supply could still pressure Brazil's current FOB prices and returns. Peru, which typically ships from November through March, is also facing a major volume decline.

Pricing is already elevated given tight supply, and grower expectations — especially on the Peruvian side — are running high. Orrantia cautioned that the market may not be able to sustain those high prices long-term, noting that even a week or two of slightly higher-than-expected volume can cause prices to fall sharply. He pointed to last year's Peruvian season as a cautionary tale where elevated expectations led to a disappointing overall result.

Buyers with fall and Q4 mango programs should flag the supply risk now. With two key origins at half their normal volume, program commitments may be difficult to fulfill and pricing could be volatile — particularly if Brazil's early-season volumes come in lower than hoped.

Mexico's Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare is running a pilot program through September 30 for a new labor certification requirement — the Labor Certificate for Agricultural Exports (CLA) — that becomes mandatory for all avocado exports starting October 1, 2026. The certification, processed through the Velagro platform, verifies that exporters and their supply chain partners are in compliance with Mexican labor and social security obligations. Avocado is the first agricultural product to go through mandatory certification under this program, tied to a formal government commitment on agricultural worker protections.

Exporters are solely responsible for applying for and processing the CLA, but producers, packing houses, and other chain participants must be current on their labor obligations to be included in an exporter's declared supply chain. The initial certificate will be valid from October 1 through November 7, with the STPS providing training and support during the pilot window.

This is a new regulatory layer on one of the most traded produce commodities in North America. Watch for potential friction at the start of the new crop season if exporters aren't certified in time — any bottleneck in Michoacan or Jalisco could affect avocado availability and pricing in the U.S. market.

Mexico's new crop lime transition is running nearly a month behind last year, and current supply is unable to keep pace with demand, according to Alex Landin of Limonik. Most fruit still on the trees hasn't reached harvest size, with the bulk of harvesting currently concentrated on smaller 250-count, 230-count, and 200-count sizes. Mexican Independence Day and forecast rain further compressed this week's crossings, with no significant incoming volume expected until mid-to-late week at the earliest.

Field prices are strengthening because growers have little incentive to accelerate harvest on immature fruit. Landin attributes the delayed sizing in part to insufficient rainfall during the bloom period. He expects meaningful volume improvement by late September through mid-October, contingent on continued rain helping fruit size up on the tree.

This supply crunch is layered on top of quality concerns that are also limiting usable supply — a pattern that mirrors a similar situation from last season. Buyers who need larger lime sizes in the near term should expect premium pricing and limited availability.

The largest U.S. supermarket operators have struggled to sustain momentum in comparable store sales over the past several quarters, signaling a broader stall in traditional grocery retail. The slowdown reflects a combination of inflation fatigue, shifting shopper habits, and competition from alternative channels. When same-store sales flatten, grocers typically respond by pulling back on promotions, tightening assortment, and pressuring supplier pricing — all of which ripple directly into fresh produce.

This follows recent data showing produce retail volume fell in August, with fruit down 6% and vegetables down 4%. The same-store sales pressure compounds that picture: it's not just consumers buying less fresh produce, it's the retail environment that sells it becoming more cautious about investment in the category.

For produce suppliers and category managers, a prolonged same-store sales stagnation at major grocers is worth tracking closely. Retailers under comp pressure tend to concentrate promotional spend on high-velocity staples and pull back on newer or higher-priced items — which could reshape where fresh produce dollars flow in Q4.