Mexico's new crop lime transition is running nearly a month behind last year, and current supply is unable to keep pace with demand, according to Alex Landin of Limonik. Most fruit still on the trees hasn't reached harvest size, with the bulk of harvesting currently concentrated on smaller 250-count, 230-count, and 200-count sizes. Mexican Independence Day and forecast rain further compressed this week's crossings, with no significant incoming volume expected until mid-to-late week at the earliest.
Field prices are strengthening because growers have little incentive to accelerate harvest on immature fruit. Landin attributes the delayed sizing in part to insufficient rainfall during the bloom period. He expects meaningful volume improvement by late September through mid-October, contingent on continued rain helping fruit size up on the tree.
This supply crunch is layered on top of quality concerns that are also limiting usable supply — a pattern that mirrors a similar situation from last season. Buyers who need larger lime sizes in the near term should expect premium pricing and limited availability.