Peru's 2026 Hass avocado season is closing with shipments projected to fall nearly 2% from last year, reversing an initial forecast for 6% growth. The U.S. market took the sharpest hit, with shipments down approximately 36% year-over-year. ProHass general manager Arturo Medina attributed the decline to greater availability of Mexican and California avocados alongside past instances where Peruvian fruit failed to meet U.S. buyer quality expectations.
El Niño created high variability in dry matter levels within specific lots and pushed more small-fruit sizes into the market early, while larger fruit was held on trees longer to hit required maturity benchmarks. Europe absorbed about 67% of Peru's Hass exports and remained the most important market, though Italy emerged as a growth destination with importers shifting to direct container purchasing. Asian markets showed strong growth in South Korea (up 41%) and Thailand (up 76%).
For U.S. buyers, the continued underperformance of Peruvian avocados in this market — compounded by ongoing Mexican supply and the recently wrapped California season — raises questions about whether Peru can rebuild its U.S. presence. Medina's comments about quality and reputation are worth monitoring as the industry enters the next season.