North American tomato supply is fragmented right now, with domestic regions either between crops or wrapping up, and Mexico running tighter than usual due to heat and rain. Michigan, the Carolinas, Canada — all light. The result is average-to-thin availability across the board, and prices running well above historical norms for this time of year.
According to Blue Creek Produce, the industry hasn't seen sustained pricing like this in a long time. Diesel fuel costs are up 60% year-over-year, adding pressure on top of the supply tightness. Demand is currently moderate — retailers are shifting floor space toward fall items like apples — but it's expected to pick up toward the end of September and into October as local crops finish out.
Florida production is the next meaningful supply reset, and that's weather-dependent and not expected until November. Watch for pricing to hold firm or move higher before then, particularly if quality issues emerge in remaining active regions.