Mexico's Chihuahua state — which accounts for 85.7% of the country's apple volume — is expecting its harvest to jump more than 30% this season, reaching roughly 25 million boxes versus 18 million in 2025. National harvest data through August 2026 already shows 433,235 tons, tracking well ahead of pace. Chihuahua alone has approximately 35,000 hectares planted, and growing conditions supported the strong crop.
Running alongside the production story is a significant trade dispute: Mexico's Ministry of Economy launched an antidumping investigation into U.S. apple imports in January 2026, covering the April 2024–March 2025 period. U.S. apples account for 97.5% of Mexico's apple imports. A resolution is expected in October.
If Mexico imposes antidumping duties, it could close off a major export channel for U.S. growers — particularly Gala, Fuji, Honeycrisp, and Pink Lady — at a time when domestic U.S. apple supply is already tightening in some regions. Worth watching closely as both the harvest and the trade ruling develop simultaneously.