The USDA's September Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook paints a divided picture for fall produce. California table grapes are forecast at 1.15 million tons, up 10% from last year and 13% above the 2022–24 average, with fresh shipments through week 37 already running 20% above the prior three-year average. Meanwhile, the U.S. apple crop is forecast at 10.4 billion pounds, down 6% from 2025, with Pennsylvania down 58% and Virginia down 48% due to spring freeze damage. The U.S. pear crop is forecast to be the third-lowest since 1972 at 650,000 tons, down 15%.
Peaches are also down 15% from 2025, with declines forecast in six of seven surveyed states. On the citrus side, U.S. output for 2025/26 rose 6.5%, with Valencia oranges up 17% and navels up 12%. Lemon output slipped 2%. Kiwifruit imports are already past the previous full-season record with two months left in the marketing year.
For buyers, this is a critical planning document heading into fall and winter. Abundant table grapes create promotional opportunity now, while the deep apple and pear shortfalls — especially in the East — will likely support prices and squeeze program availability. Watch for domestic shortfalls in apples and pears to create pressure to source from import origins.