ProHass now estimates Peru's total Hass avocado export volume for 2026 will come in 1.9% below last season — a sharp reversal from the 6% growth the industry was targeting at the start of the year. El Niño drove warmer temperatures that slowed the development of larger fruit sizes and pushed dry matter accumulation behind schedule, forcing many growers to delay harvest by three to four weeks across full batches.
The U.S. market saw the steepest decline in Peruvian volumes. ProHass managing director Arturo Medina attributes this not to weak American demand but to a large Mexican crop and a strong California season that left less room on U.S. shelves for Peruvian fruit. Europe, which accounts for about 67% of cumulative Peru shipments through week 38, held up better, with the Netherlands remaining the top transshipment hub. Asia continued to grow, with South Korea recording one of the year's largest percentage increases in Peruvian imports.
With Peru's season wrapping up and California's avocado program also winding down, Mexico is now reasserting itself as the dominant North American supply source heading into fall. Worth monitoring how Mexican volume ramp-up and size distribution affect pricing and program positioning through Q4.