Growers in North Dakota's River Valley region are projecting red and yellow potato volumes down roughly 20–25% from last year, driven by a rough growing season. Heavy rains in early June drowned out about 15% of planted acres in the northern valley, while the southern end — particularly around Grand Forks — ran dry all season, limiting yield potential. A late-August rain event helped with harvest conditions but came too late to benefit early varieties.
Demand dynamics are adding another layer of complexity. Red potato demand has been soft for the past year and a half, while yellow potato demand continues to grow — though growers are beginning to wonder when yellows become oversupplied. Russet pricing has been running below the cost of production for two years, which has put downward pressure on colored variety pricing as well. Harvest is expected to begin around September 10, with storage shipments not moving until late October.
With volumes tighter out of North Dakota this season, there's some hope for pricing improvement — but growers note that the potato market has become increasingly national rather than regional, so supply from other states will have a strong influence on whether prices actually recover.