Mexico is entering its dominant supply window — covering roughly 95% of U.S. avocado needs — with a crop that's better matched to demand than last year's. According to Stonehill Produce's David Billings, the season is running about 7-10% ahead of demand and prices are landing close to where they were a year ago, with promotability across jumbos, 48s, 60s, 70s, 84s and smaller sizes. The crop is slightly smaller than last year's and a bit behind schedule, avoiding the "loca" crop carryover problem that created late-season complications in 2025.
Last year's crop matured early, drove up oil content, and meant a lot of fruit never made it to the U.S. market. This year's timing is cleaner. California still has some fruit available but is largely in specialty positioning, and Peruvian shipments have ended. Some Colombian supply is also entering the channel.
Billings notes that avocados could be a strong category play for retailers looking to rebuild produce basket size after the Cyclospora iceberg lettuce outbreak softened shopper confidence this summer. Watch for promotional programming to ramp up as Mexican volume stabilizes through the next several months.