The Banana Association of North America is warning that the system keeping bananas affordable and available in U.S. stores is under growing stress from multiple directions simultaneously. Diesel prices have surged to $6.20 per gallon — up 76% from $3.52 at the start of the year — while fertilizer, plastics, carton, and pallet costs have also climbed sharply in 2026. The escalating Iran war is being cited as a factor driving bunker fuel costs for ocean shipping.
On top of input costs, banana growers in Ecuador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Colombia, Honduras, Peru, and Mexico are battling Black Sigatoka fungal disease and, more seriously, Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4), a soil-borne pathogen capable of killing banana plants outright. The developing 2026 El Niño is adding further uncertainty, with the World Meteorological Organization projecting a near-100% probability of the event continuing through February 2027 and potentially becoming the strongest on record. El Niño can bring flooding in some Latin American growing regions and drought in others.
Bananas remain the most purchased produce item in North American retail, which makes supply chain stress here a category-level concern for buyers and category managers. Watch for freight cost increases to flow through to landed costs heading into Q4 and Q1.