AgWest's latest quarterly assessment finds that lower crop volumes are translating into better market conditions for several key North American commodities. Apple growers are currently rated slightly unprofitable, but the 12-month outlook is bullish: the 2026 crop is expected to come in smaller than 2025's large harvest, bringing supply more in line with demand and supporting a price recovery. Apple packers remain slightly profitable with a neutral outlook.
On the potato side, contracted potatoes are slightly profitable with a neutral near-term outlook supported by stable processor contracts, while uncontracted potatoes remain slightly unprofitable but carry a bullish 12-month outlook as a smaller regional crop tightens the supply-demand balance. Water shortages could further reduce the uncontracted potato crop, which would likely provide additional price support. Lemon growers sit at breakeven as South American imports and weak markets pressure prices, while orange growers are slightly profitable despite quality and sizing challenges.
For buyers planning fall and winter programs, the apple and potato signals are notable: lower supply relative to demand is the driver of improvement, meaning pricing is likely to firm as the season progresses. Watch for the uncontracted potato situation in particular, where water availability could be the variable that tightens supply further.