Mango expert Milton Calle is forecasting a roughly 60% decline in Peru's national mango production compared to last year, with the hardest-hit regions being Motupe, Olmos, and Piura during the December–January peak window. Both a global El Niño (category 3–4) and a coastal El Niño (category 1–2) are intensifying simultaneously, with ENFEN now putting the probability of each at 100%.
The logistical picture is especially grim in Motupe and Olmos, where flooding ravines and damaged roads will make harvesting extremely difficult. In Piura, light rainfall in November alone could cause anthracnose to affect up to 30% of the fruit, particularly in orchards with dense foliage and sparse flowering. The Casma region, which has seen only about 10% flowering so far, faces additional risk from swelling rivers and potential bridge damage.
Peru is a critical import origin for North American mangoes, particularly during the winter window when domestic supply is unavailable. Buyers and category managers sourcing Peruvian fruit for December through February programs should watch this situation closely — a 60% production drop of this magnitude would be one of the most significant supply disruptions to hit the category in recent years.