U.S. tomato prices are up 22% year-over-year according to the latest CPI data, driven by a combination of a 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes, higher fuel and fertilizer costs, and bad weather during peak growing season in both Florida and Mexico. The hit is coming from multiple directions simultaneously, making it harder to isolate any single fix.
Mexico is the dominant supplier of fresh tomatoes to the U.S. market, so the tariff alone has significant structural pricing implications. Add weather disruptions on top of that, and buyers are looking at a supply picture that isn't improving quickly.
Category managers should expect continued pressure through at least the near-term window. This is a story worth flagging to retail partners — consumers are already feeling it at the shelf, and demand softness could follow if prices stay elevated.