The USDA's first forecast for the 2026-27 Florida citrus season puts orange production at 10 million boxes — down 23% from last season's 12.95 million boxes. Non-Valencia varieties are forecast to fall a punishing 37%, while Valencia oranges are down 14%. Grapefruit production is also slightly lower, though tangerine and tangelo volumes dipped only modestly. Lemon is the lone bright spot, with a projected 6% volume increase.
Florida's citrus industry is grinding through a multi-year crisis driven by citrus greening disease, reduced bearing acreage, hurricane damage, and ongoing freeze recovery. Fewer bearing trees and higher-than-average fruit drop are compounding the pressure this season. This forecast comes fresh on the heels of a Texas grapefruit season already hammered by extreme heat.
For buyers managing orange juice and fresh citrus programs, a 23% supply cut means tighter allocations and upward price pressure through the season. Worth monitoring how California Navel volume — already transitioning — absorbs any retail demand that Florida can't cover.