A Texas A&M University study commissioned for MHAIA and APEAM found that Mexican Hass avocado imports generated $7.14 billion in U.S. economic output in fiscal year 2025/26, supporting 37,163 jobs and contributing $4.36 billion to GDP. Every dollar of imports generated another $2.21 in total U.S. economic output. The category's footprint has more than tripled over the past 13 years, with import value growing 220% from $991.9 million in FY2012/13 to $3.2 billion in FY2025/26.
Despite the long-term growth story, every major economic indicator dropped sharply in 2025/26. Total economic output fell 23%, GDP contribution fell 23%, employment supported dropped 25%, labor income fell 23%, and estimated tax revenue dropped 22%. The decline reflects a $470 million drop in import value versus the prior year — the same downward trend flagged in the broader Mexico import data.
The combination of lower import volumes and reduced economic activity points to real softness in the Mexican avocado supply chain's U.S. footprint. Worth watching whether the 2026/27 season reverses the trend or confirms a structural adjustment in avocado trade flows.