A new USDA report forecasts Mexican tomato production will fall 9% in 2026, bringing total output to 2.6 million metric tons. The decline continues a downward trend that began in 2023 and is being driven primarily by the 17% antidumping tariff imposed on Mexican tomato exports to the U.S. The tariff has disrupted market access and squeezed grower margins hard enough to push acreage down significantly.
This is a concrete USDA data point that goes beyond the acreage story already covered — production volume is now forecast to fall too. With tomato prices already at record highs earlier this year, a structurally smaller Mexican crop has serious downstream implications for supply and retail pricing heading into the second half of 2026. The combination of currency pressures and potential El Niño climate volatility adds further uncertainty on top of the tariff headwind.
Watch for tightening supply on rounds, romas, and grape tomatoes as the season progresses. Buyers sourcing heavily from Mexico should be pressure-testing their contingency plans now, particularly if El Niño weather materializes and compounds the volume shortfall.