Ecuador's mango exports to the U.S. are forecast at around 7.2 million boxes this season, down from roughly 14 million last season — a 49 percent drop driven by weather volatility, according to Albert Pérez, owner of Continental Fresh. Peru, which could have offset some of that shortfall, is expected to come in 30 percent below last season's production as well. Together, the two origins represent the bulk of U.S. import volume, and both are heading into the season compromised.
High prices and supply unpredictability are already making it difficult for retailers to schedule promotions four weeks out, which is the standard planning window. That uncertainty is translating into less shelf space for the category, compounding the problem on the demand side. On the bright side, fresh-cut mango is showing strong growth, with over 30 percent of Continental Fresh's volume now moving in cubed and sliced formats — a demand signal worth paying attention to.
Retailers and buyers with mango programs this winter should watch Ecuador and Peru volumes closely as the season develops. Supply stabilization will be the prerequisite for any promotional activity, and the category risks losing shelf real estate that will be hard to reclaim quickly once production normalizes.