Chiquita CEO Carlos López Flores has warned that banana sales are expected to decline in 2027 as El Niño disrupts harvests across Latin America. Heavy rainfall in Ecuador and Peru could increase disease pressure and damage crops, drought in Brazil and the Amazon basin poses additional risks, and reduced water availability in the Panama Canal could disrupt key shipping lanes. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict has pushed up fertilizer, packaging, and fuel costs that are difficult to pass on because banana pricing is largely locked into long-term contracts.
Chiquita has already begun preliminary 2027 supply negotiations with retailers, centering on supply continuity and higher operating costs. U.S. banana retail prices averaged around $0.66 per pound last month, up 14% over the past decade, but that slow creep has done little to offset the cost surge exporters are now absorbing.
Bananas are the highest-volume fresh produce item in North American retail. Any disruption to Latin American supply — especially from Ecuador, the dominant U.S. source — is worth watching. The World Meteorological Organization puts El Niño continuing through at least February at near-100% probability.