USDA data confirms that U.S. potato acreage across the 13 main growing states is forecast at approximately 353,292 hectares for 2026/27 — the lowest level since 1952 and down 3% year over year. Despite favorable growing conditions in some areas, total harvest is projected to fall 2% to 4% from last year's 412.86 million cwt. Potato stocks on June 1 stood at 54.7 million cwt, down 2% and the lowest for that date since 2014, which is already supporting fresh-market prices.
Fresh potato shipments actually increased 4% between May and mid-July, with Russet shipments up 11%, reflecting strong demand even as supply contracts. Fresh potato exports jumped 18% year over year through September-May, adding additional pressure to domestic availability. Meanwhile, frozen French fry inventories at the end of June were up 4%, but exports declined 9%.
The USDA's November report will provide updated harvest estimates — that's the next major data point for category managers to track. Given the combination of record-low acreage and elevated export demand, fresh potato pricing could see additional support heading into the winter months.